Benfica head into the final round of the Champions League league phase needing a victory to keep their playoff hopes alive, sitting two points outside the top 24. As Real Madrid have little to play for in Wednesday's clash, our prediction leans toward a 2-2 draw. Benfica boss Jose Mourinho faces a major selection crisis. Bah, Felix, Rios, Lukebakio, Veloso, and Soares are all injured, while Henrique Araújo is a serious doubt. Despite the absences, Benfica’s home numbers remain strong: 75% home win rate, 3.25 goals per home game, and 0.78 xGA, showing they can control matches convincingly at Estadio da Luz. They have also kept clean sheets in 50% of their home fixtures.
Real Madrid, meanwhile, travel without several key defenders—Alexander-Arnold, Militao, Mendy, and Rudiger—which leaves their back line stretched. Even so, Los Blancos remain the most dangerous attacking side in the group, averaging 4.25 goals per game at home and 2.17 away, while registering goals in every match of the campaign. They aim to secure third place and will not take this match lightly.
Benfica’s desperation and strong home metrics could make this competitive, and given Real Madrid’s attacking potential, we believe that there is big value in betting on Over 2.5 goals. Additionally, BTTS and Pavlidis to Score or Assists bets seem appealing.
This Champions League match will be played on Wednesday 28 January 2026 at 20:00.
What is our Benfica vs Real Madrid prediction?
Our prediction for this match: Benfica 2 - 2 Real Madrid
Benfica vs Real Madrid Betting Tips
- Correct Score: 2-2
- Both Teams To Score (BTTS): Yes
- Over / Under 2.5 Goals: Over 2.5 Goals
- Over / Under 1.5 Goals: Over 1.5 Goals
- Anytime Goalscorer: Kylian Mbappe @ -150 Odds
- To be booked: Jose Neto @ 130 Odds
- Asian Handicap: Benfica +1 @ -167 Odds
- Shots on Target (Home): Over 4.5
- Shots on Target (Away): Over 4.5
- Shots on Target (Total): Over 9.5
- Total Corners: 9 - 11 @ 160 Odds
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View OfferBenfica Team Form and Stats
| Form | Results | Points Per Game |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | llwlw | 1.90 |
| Home | wwlw | 2.25 |
| Away | wdlwl | 1.67 |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 75% | 50% |
| Average Goals Per Game | 2.80 | 3.25 | 2.50 |
| Scored | 1.90 | 2.25 | 1.67 |
| Conceded | 0.90 | 1.00 | 0.83 |
| BTTS | 30% | 50% | 17% |
| Clean Sheets | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Failed to Score | 20% | 0% | 33% |
| Expected Goals | 1.77 | 1.84 | 1.71 |
| Expected Goals Against | 0.96 | 0.78 | 1.09 |
Real Madrid Team Form and Stats
| Form | Results | Points Per Game |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | llwww | 2.40 |
| Home | wwww | 3.00 |
| Away | wwllw | 2.00 |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Win % | 80% | 100% | 67% |
| Average Goals Per Game | 4.00 | 4.25 | 3.83 |
| Scored | 2.80 | 3.75 | 2.17 |
| Conceded | 1.20 | 0.50 | 1.67 |
| BTTS | 70% | 50% | 83% |
| Clean Sheets | 30% | 50% | 17% |
| Failed to Score | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Expected Goals | 2.08 | 2.37 | 1.89 |
| Expected Goals Against | 1.50 | 1.47 | 1.52 |
Benfica vs Real Madrid Head to Head Statistics (H2H)
Previous Match Data between these 2 teams are not available
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