St. Pauli and Hamburg meet in a Hamburg derby, and both sides enter the clash under pressure. As both sides are likely to adopt a cautious approach, we predict a 1-1 draw. Alexander Blessin's troops have collected just 0.9 points per game across their last five outings, losing their last two, but they remain tougher at home, where they average 1.33 PPG and concede only 0.67 goals per match. Ricky-Jade Jones is pushing for a start after scoring off the bench at Dortmund, giving St. Pauli a needed spark in attack, as they’ve failed to score in 30% of their recent games.
Die Rothosen, meanwhile, head into the local derby with a worrying four straight away defeats, scoring only 0.75 goals per away game while conceding 2.75. Nicolas Capaldo is unlikely to feature, adding to the visitors’ lack of stability. Despite their strong home form, HSV are yet to pick up any points on the road in their last four matches.
Considering St. Pauli 70% BTTS overall record and Hamburg's 80%, there is big value in betting on Both Teams to Score. Additionally, Over 4.5 yellow cards and Over 1.5 yellow cards first half bets seem appealing as there are always many bookings in derbies because of the intensity and hard challenges.
This Bundesliga match will be played on Friday 23 January 2026 at 19:30.
What is our St Pauli vs Hamburg prediction?
Our prediction for this match: St Pauli 1 - 1 Hamburg
St Pauli vs Hamburg Betting Tips
- Correct Score: 1-1
- Both Teams To Score (BTTS): Yes
- Over / Under 2.5 Goals: Under 2.5 Goals
- Over / Under 1.5 Goals: Over 1.5 Goals
- Anytime Goalscorer: Robert Glatzel @ 220 Odds
- To be booked: Nicolas Capaldo @ 120 Odds
- Shots on Target (Home): Over 2.5
- Shots on Target (Away): Over 2.5
- Shots on Target (Total): Over 4.5
- Total Corners: 6 - 8 @ 162 Odds
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View OfferSt Pauli Team Form and Stats
| Form | Results | Points Per Game |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | wddll | 0.90 |
| Home | lwd | 1.33 |
| Away | wddll | 0.71 |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Win % | 20% | 33% | 14% |
| Average Goals Per Game | 2.40 | 1.33 | 2.86 |
| Scored | 1.00 | 0.67 | 1.14 |
| Conceded | 1.40 | 0.67 | 1.71 |
| BTTS | 70% | 33% | 86% |
| Clean Sheets | 20% | 33% | 14% |
| Failed to Score | 30% | 67% | 14% |
| Expected Goals | 1.02 | 1.24 | 0.93 |
| Expected Goals Against | 1.40 | 1.16 | 1.49 |
Hamburg Team Form and Stats
| Form | Results | Points Per Game |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | wldld | 1.00 |
| Home | wdwdd | 1.67 |
| Away | llll | 0.00 |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Win % | 20% | 33% | 0% |
| Average Goals Per Game | 2.80 | 2.33 | 3.50 |
| Scored | 1.10 | 1.33 | 0.75 |
| Conceded | 1.70 | 1.00 | 2.75 |
| BTTS | 80% | 83% | 75% |
| Clean Sheets | 10% | 17% | 0% |
| Failed to Score | 20% | 17% | 25% |
| Expected Goals | 1.51 | 1.59 | 1.38 |
| Expected Goals Against | 1.52 | 1.29 | 1.87 |
St Pauli vs Hamburg Head to Head Statistics (H2H)
St Pauli (47%)
15 Matches
Hamburg (27%)
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