Arsenal head into the Champions League semi-final second leg full of belief after a convincing 3-0 win over Fulham, with Bukayo Saka again central to their attacking rhythm. As Atletico head into Tuesday's clash with a severely-weakened squad, we predict a 1-0 home win. Despite injury to Jurrien Timber, Mikel Arteta still has enough depth to maintain a high-tempo approach. The Gunners’ recent numbers are steady rather than dominant, averaging 2.00 total goals per game, conceding just 0.90, and keeping clean sheets in 50% of their last 10 matches.
Atletico Madrid, meanwhile, rotated heavily in a 2-0 win over Valencia, prioritizing freshness for this clash. The good news for Diego Simeone is that Argentina ace Julian Alvarez has overcome his injury, with Alexander Sorloth and Giuliano Simeone recovering in time to face Arsenal as well. Their recent form is inconsistent (1.10 points per game), but matches involving them average a high 3.40 goals, with BTTS landing in 80% of those games. Simeone is likely to stick to the 4-4-2 formation with Griezmann and Alvarez up front.
Given Arsenal's stronger form and home edge, Home Win is our main betting tip for this Champions League showdown, alongside Arsenal to Win to Nil and Under 2.5 goals (tight history and high stakes).
This Champions League match will be played on Tuesday 5 May 2026 at 20:00.
What is our Arsenal vs Atletico Madrid prediction?
Our prediction for this match: Arsenal 1 - 0 Atletico Madrid
Arsenal vs Atletico Madrid Betting Tips
- Correct Score: 1-0 @ 600 Odds
- Both Teams to Score (BTTS): No @ -125 Odds
- Over / Under 4.5 Goals: Under 4.5 Goals @ -800 Odds
- Over / Under 3.5 Goals: Under 3.5 Goals @ -300 Odds
- Over / Under 2.5 Goals: Under 2.5 Goals @ -111 Odds
- Over / Under 1.5 Goals: Under 1.5 Goals @ 275 Odds
- Anytime Goalscorer: Viktor Gyokeres @ 125 Odds
- First Goalscorer: Viktor Gyokeres @ 400 Odds
- To be Booked: Jorge Koke @ 175 Odds
- Asian Handicap: Arsenal -0.5 @ -182 Odds
- European Handicap: Atletico Madrid +2 @ -200 Odds
- Shots on Target (Home): Over 2.5
- Shots on Target (Away): Under 2.5
- Shots on Target (Total): Over 2.5
- Total Corners: 9 - 11 @ 162 Odds
- Double Chance: 12 @ -500 Odds
- Draw No Bet: Arsenal to Win @ -450 Odds
- Half Time/Full Time: Arsenal to Win/Arsenal to Win @ 137 Odds
- Clean Sheet: Arsenal - Yes @ 110 Odds
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View OfferArsenal Team Form and Stats
| Form | Results | Points Per Game |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | wllwldlwdw | 1.40 |
| Home | wlldww | 1.67 |
| Away | lwld | 1.00 |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 50% | 25% |
| Average Goals Per Game | 2.00 | 1.83 | 2.25 |
| Scored | 1.10 | 1.17 | 1.00 |
| Conceded | 0.90 | 0.67 | 1.25 |
| BTTS | 40% | 17% | 75% |
| Clean Sheets | 50% | 67% | 25% |
| Failed to Score | 20% | 33% | 0% |
| Expected Goals | 1.61 | 1.70 | 1.47 |
| Expected Goals Against | 1.22 | 1.09 | 1.43 |
Atletico Madrid Team Form and Stats
| Form | Results | Points Per Game |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | llwlldlwdw | 1.10 |
| Home | lldwd | 1.00 |
| Away | lwllw | 1.20 |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Win % | 30% | 20% | 40% |
| Average Goals Per Game | 3.40 | 3.40 | 3.40 |
| Scored | 1.70 | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| Conceded | 1.70 | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| BTTS | 80% | 100% | 60% |
| Clean Sheets | 20% | 0% | 40% |
| Failed to Score | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Expected Goals | 1.31 | 1.37 | 1.25 |
| Expected Goals Against | 1.70 | 1.72 | 1.69 |
Arsenal vs Atletico Madrid Head to Head Statistics (H2H)
Arsenal (20%)
5 Matches
Atletico Madrid (20%)
Arsenal vs Atletico Madrid Past Results
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