Estadio da Luz will host Tuesday's Champions League game between Benfica and Real Madrid. Given the attacking potential of both sides, we predict a 2-2 draw. Benfica enter the first leg with several injuries (Bah, Félix, Rios, Soares, Veloso), though only part of that group are key starters. Even so, Jose Mourinho's men come in strong, winning four of their last five matches and averaging 2.40 points per game at home. Their attacking output at the Estadio da Luz has been superb, scoring 2.80 goals per home match and generating 2.35 xG, one of the highest in this round. However, their defence concedes 1.40 goals per home game, which remains a concern against elite opposition.
Real Madrid travel to Lisbon with issues of their own: Rodrygo is suspended, while Jude Bellingham and Eder Militao remain sidelined. Despite that, Alvaro Arbeloa’s side are in excellent form (WLWWW) and boast a massive 4.00 average goals per match this season. Their away record is more uneven (1.50 PPG), conceding 1.83 goals per game, but they still create 1.74 expected goals on the road and maintain a 0% failure-to-score rate. As always, top scorer Kylian Mbappe will lead the line for the Spanish giants.
Madrid will be fuelled by revenge after losing 4–2 to Benfica in the league phase, and another high-tempo match is expected given both sides’ attacking profiles. Therefore, Over 2.5 goals is our main betting tip, alongside BTTS and Over 4.5 yellow cards (rivalry between Portuguese and Spanish sides).
This Champions League match will be played on Tuesday 17 February 2026 at 20:00.
What is our Benfica vs Real Madrid prediction?
Our prediction for this match: Benfica 2 - 2 Real Madrid
Benfica vs Real Madrid Betting Tips
- Over / Under 4.5 Goals: Under 4.5 Goals @ -500 Odds
- Over / Under 3.5 Goals: Over 3.5 Goals @ 162 Odds
- Anytime Goalscorer: Kylian Mbappe @ -105 Odds
- First Goalscorer: Kylian Mbappe @ 350 Odds
- To be Booked: Jose Neto @ 140 Odds
- Asian Handicap: Benfica +0.5 @ -143 Odds
- European Handicap: Benfica +1 @ -150 Odds
- Shots on Target (Home): Over 4.5
- Shots on Target (Away): Over 4.5
- Shots on Target (Total): Over 9.5
- Total Corners: 9 - 11 @ 160 Odds
- Double Chance: 1X @ -150 Odds
- Half Time/Full Time: X (Draw)/X (Draw) @ 500 Odds
- Clean Sheet: Real Madrid - No @ -350 Odds
Where Can You Place Bets on Benfica vs Real Madrid?
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View OfferBenfica Team Form and Stats
| Form | Results | Points Per Game |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | wwdww | 1.90 |
| Home | wlwww | 2.40 |
| Away | lwldw | 1.40 |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 80% | 40% |
| Average Goals Per Game | 2.90 | 4.20 | 1.60 |
| Scored | 1.80 | 2.80 | 0.80 |
| Conceded | 1.10 | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| BTTS | 50% | 80% | 20% |
| Clean Sheets | 30% | 20% | 40% |
| Failed to Score | 30% | 0% | 60% |
| Expected Goals | 2.18 | 2.35 | 2.02 |
| Expected Goals Against | 1.01 | 1.01 | 1.02 |
Real Madrid Team Form and Stats
| Form | Results | Points Per Game |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | wlwww | 2.10 |
| Home | wwww | 3.00 |
| Away | llwlw | 1.50 |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 100% | 50% |
| Average Goals Per Game | 4.00 | 4.25 | 3.83 |
| Scored | 2.60 | 3.50 | 2.00 |
| Conceded | 1.40 | 0.75 | 1.83 |
| BTTS | 70% | 75% | 67% |
| Clean Sheets | 30% | 25% | 33% |
| Failed to Score | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Expected Goals | 1.90 | 2.13 | 1.74 |
| Expected Goals Against | 1.55 | 1.39 | 1.66 |
Benfica vs Real Madrid Head to Head Statistics (H2H)
Benfica (100%)
1 Matches
Real Madrid (0%)
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