Liverpool head into the final round of the Champions League league phase focused on securing an automatic place in the last 16. As Qarabag are not regarded as good travellers, our prediction firmly points toward a 3-1 home win. Both Joe Gomez and Federico Chiesa remain doubtful, but neither is a guaranteed starter, meaning Arne Slot still has plenty of depth to work with. Liverpool’s home numbers are typically strong: 2.20 points per game, a 60% win rate, and only 0.60 goals conceded per home match. Their attacking metrics are solid as well, producing 1.80 goals per home game with a powerful 2.37 expected goals, suggesting they should create more than enough chances.
Qarabag, meanwhile, aim to secure a top-24 finish and reach the playoffs. Their only confirmed absentee is goalkeeper Shahrudin Mahammadaliyev, a blow but not catastrophic. The Azeri champions show competitive attacking data—1.93 expected goals overall and 2.12 xG at home—but their away record is far less convincing. They collect just 1.00 point per away match, win only 25% of their road fixtures, and concede 1.50 goals away on average. Clean sheets on their travels are non-existent.
With Liverpool’s superior quality, stronger underlying numbers, and home advantage, the hosts should be in control. Taking everything into account, Home Win seems like a sure bet, with additional value on Liverpool/Liverpool and Mohamed Salah to Score.
This Champions League match will be played on Wednesday 28 January 2026 at 20:00.
What is our Liverpool vs Qarabag prediction?
Our prediction for this match: Liverpool 3 - 1 Qarabag
Liverpool vs Qarabag Betting Tips
- Correct Score: 3-1
- Both Teams To Score (BTTS): Yes
- Over / Under 2.5 Goals: Over 2.5 Goals
- Over / Under 1.5 Goals: Over 1.5 Goals
- Anytime Goalscorer: Hugo Ekitike @ -275 Odds
- To be booked: Kevin Medina @ 220 Odds
- Asian Handicap: FK Qarabag +3 @ -138 Odds
- Shots on Target (Home): Over 7.5
- Shots on Target (Away): Over 2.5
- Shots on Target (Total): Over 9.5
- Total Corners: 9 - 11 @ 162 Odds
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View OfferLiverpool Team Form and Stats
| Form | Results | Points Per Game |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | dwdwl | 1.90 |
| Home | wwdwd | 2.20 |
| Away | wddwl | 1.60 |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 60% | 40% |
| Average Goals Per Game | 2.70 | 2.40 | 3.00 |
| Scored | 1.80 | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| Conceded | 0.90 | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| BTTS | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| Clean Sheets | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Failed to Score | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Expected Goals | 1.81 | 2.37 | 1.25 |
| Expected Goals Against | 1.16 | 0.98 | 1.34 |
Qarabag Team Form and Stats
| Form | Results | Points Per Game |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | wlwwl | 1.60 |
| Home | wlwwl | 2.00 |
| Away | ldlw | 1.00 |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 67% | 25% |
| Average Goals Per Game | 3.40 | 4.00 | 2.50 |
| Scored | 1.90 | 2.50 | 1.00 |
| Conceded | 1.50 | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| BTTS | 60% | 50% | 75% |
| Clean Sheets | 20% | 33% | 0% |
| Failed to Score | 20% | 17% | 25% |
| Expected Goals | 1.93 | 2.12 | 1.65 |
| Expected Goals Against | 1.22 | 0.95 | 1.63 |
Liverpool vs Qarabag Head to Head Statistics (H2H)
Previous Match Data between these 2 teams are not available
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