AS Monaco aim to claim a major scalp in this highly-anticipated Champions League double-header with PSG. However, our prediction points toward a 2-1 away win as les Rouges et Blancs head into the match with a severely-weakened squad. Monaco have growing injury concerns after both Akliouche and Camara limped off in the 3–1 win over Nantes. They may join an already-long absentee list, putting pressure on Sebastien Pocognoli's rotation options. Monaco’s recent form has been inconsistent (DWLDW), and their defensive numbers at home—1.40 goals conceded per match with an xGA of 1.23—highlight their vulnerability against elite attacks. However, they remain a dangerous offensive side at Stade Louis-II, averaging 1.80 goals scored at home.
Paris Saint-Germain head into the first leg with near full strength, as Fabian Ruiz is their only confirmed absentee. Despite a slip in their last league outing, PSG’s underlying metrics remain strong: 2.20 expected goals per match and only 1.10 goals conceded on average. Their away form (LWWL) shows volatility, but they have failed to score in 0% of their away games, underlining their consistent threat. Key defender Marquinhos returns to the starting XI after coming off the bench in a shocking 3-1 loss to Rennes at the weekend.
H2H history leans toward PSG with 17 wins from 36 meetings, though Monaco often raise their level in this matchup. Taking everything into account, we predict a fast, technical contest with chances at both ends. As Monaco’s matches average 3.10 goals and PSG’s 2.90 overall, we are tempted to bet on Over 2.5 goals, alongside BTTS and PSG to Win (squad depth).
This Champions League match will be played on Tuesday 17 February 2026 at 20:00.
What is our Monaco vs PSG prediction?
Our prediction for this match: Monaco 1 - 2 PSG
Monaco vs PSG Betting Tips
- Over / Under 4.5 Goals: Under 4.5 Goals @ -350 Odds
- Over / Under 3.5 Goals: Under 3.5 Goals @ -138 Odds
- Anytime Goalscorer: Ousmane Dembele @ -120 Odds
- First Goalscorer: Ousmane Dembele @ 375 Odds
- To be Booked: Bradel Kiwa @ 187 Odds
- Asian Handicap: Monaco +1.5 @ -143 Odds
- European Handicap: Monaco +2 @ -150 Odds
- Shots on Target (Home): Over 2.5
- Shots on Target (Away): Over 4.5
- Shots on Target (Total): Over 7.5
- Total Corners: 9 - 11 @ 162 Odds
- Double Chance: 12 @ -550 Odds
- Draw No Bet: PSG to Win @ -600 Odds
- Half Time/Full Time: PSG to Win/PSG to Win @ 110 Odds
- Clean Sheet: PSG - No @ -225 Odds
Where Can You Place Bets on Monaco vs PSG?
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View OfferMonaco Team Form and Stats
| Form | Results | Points Per Game |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | dwldw | 1.20 |
| Home | lldww | 1.40 |
| Away | wldld | 1.00 |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Win % | 30% | 40% | 20% |
| Average Goals Per Game | 3.10 | 3.20 | 3.00 |
| Scored | 1.40 | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| Conceded | 1.70 | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| BTTS | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| Clean Sheets | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Failed to Score | 30% | 20% | 40% |
| Expected Goals | 1.42 | 1.43 | 1.40 |
| Expected Goals Against | 1.48 | 1.23 | 1.72 |
PSG Team Form and Stats
| Form | Results | Points Per Game |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | wdwwl | 1.70 |
| Home | dlwdw | 1.83 |
| Away | lwwl | 1.50 |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Average Goals Per Game | 2.90 | 3.00 | 2.75 |
| Scored | 1.80 | 2.17 | 1.25 |
| Conceded | 1.10 | 0.83 | 1.50 |
| BTTS | 60% | 50% | 75% |
| Clean Sheets | 30% | 33% | 25% |
| Failed to Score | 10% | 17% | 0% |
| Expected Goals | 2.20 | 2.21 | 2.19 |
| Expected Goals Against | 1.06 | 1.05 | 1.08 |
Monaco vs PSG Head to Head Statistics (H2H)
Monaco (25%)
36 Matches
PSG (47%)
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