Alaves and Rayo Vallecano meet in what promises to be a close Copa del Rey encounter with 1-1 our predicted outcome. The Basques suffered a 3-1 defeat to Villarreal and could again be without key forward Lucas Boye, whose absence limits their ability to convert chances. Their overall numbers remain modest: 1.00 point per game, 0.90 goals scored, and 1.40 conceded. Even at home they average only 0.80 goals scored, although their defensive output in Vitoria is more stable with 0.80 conceded per match. Alaves also hold a slim historical edge at home, but the H2H is dominated by Rayo, who have won six of the last nine meetings.
Los Vallecanos, on the other hand, travel to the Basque Country with momentum after a 2-1 win over Mallorca, though right-back Andrei Rațiu is expected to miss out. Francisco’s side have been far more consistent, collecting 1.80 points per game, with a balanced attack scoring 1.40 goals both home and away. Importantly, Rayo’s away fixtures tend to open up, averaging 3.00 total goals with a 60% win rate, supported by a strong 1.55 expected goals on the road.
As Rayo's recent away games average 3.00 goals, we are tempted to place our bets on Over 1.5 goals, with additional value on BTTS and Half-Time Draw.
This Copa del Rey match will be played on Wednesday 14 January 2026 at 20:00.
What is our Alaves vs Rayo Vallecano prediction?
Our prediction for this match: Alaves 1 - 1 Rayo Vallecano
Alaves vs Rayo Vallecano Betting Tips
- Correct Score: 1-1
- Both Teams To Score (BTTS): Yes
- Over / Under 2.5 Goals: Under 2.5 Goals
- Over / Under 1.5 Goals: Over 1.5 Goals
- Anytime Goalscorer: Lucas Boye @ 162 Odds
- To be booked: Gerard Gumbau @ 162 Odds
- Shots on Target (Home): Over 2.5
- Shots on Target (Away): Over 2.5
- Shots on Target (Total): Over 4.5
- Total Corners: 9 - 11 @ 160 Odds
Where Can You Place Bets on Alaves vs Rayo Vallecano?
You can place your bets on Alaves vs Rayo Vallecano at the following bookmakers:
Min deposit requirement. Free Bets are paid as Bet Credits and are available for use upon settlement of bets to value of qualifying deposit. Min odds, bet and payment method exclusions apply. Returns exclude Bet Credits stake. Time limits and T&Cs apply. Registration required. #Ad / GambleAware.org / 18+
View Offer
18+. GambleAware.org. New GB customers only. Min £10 debit card deposit. Place a £10+ bet at Evens or greater (2.0) each leg on Sports within 7 days. Opt in for £20 in free bets. Valid for 7 days. Geographical restrictions and T&C’s apply. #Ad / GambleAware.org / 18+
View Offer
18+. New customers using Promo code TOP30 only, Min £10/€10/$10 stake, min odds 1.5, free bets paid as 2 x £15/€15/$15, free bets credited after settlement of first qualifying bet, free bets will expire 30 days after the qualifying bet is settled, payment method/player/country restrictions apply. See full terms below. Play responsibly. Gamblingtherapy.org #Ad / GambleAware.org / 18+
View Offer
18+ New UK+ROI customers only. Certain deposit methods & bet types excl. Min first £/€5 bet within 14 days of account reg at min odds 1/2 to get 4 x £/€5 free bets (selected sportsbook markets only, valid 7 days, stake not returned. Restrictions + T&Cs apply. #Ad / GambleAware.org / 18+
View Offer
18+ New UK+ROI Customers only. Certain deposit methods & bet types excl. Min first £/€5 bet within 14 days of account reg at min odds 1/2 to get 4x £/€5 free bets. Free bets available to use on selected sportsbook markets only. Free bets valid for 7 days, stake not returned. Restrictions + T&Cs apply. #Ad / GambleAware.org / 18+
View OfferAlaves Team Form and Stats
| Form | Results | Points Per Game |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | lwldl | 1.00 |
| Home | lwlwd | 1.40 |
| Away | llwll | 0.60 |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Win % | 30% | 40% | 20% |
| Average Goals Per Game | 2.30 | 1.60 | 3.00 |
| Scored | 0.90 | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| Conceded | 1.40 | 0.80 | 2.00 |
| BTTS | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Clean Sheets | 30% | 40% | 20% |
| Failed to Score | 30% | 20% | 40% |
| Expected Goals | 1.31 | 1.41 | 1.20 |
| Expected Goals Against | 1.43 | 1.32 | 1.53 |
Rayo Vallecano Team Form and Stats
| Form | Results | Points Per Game |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | wldww | 1.80 |
| Home | ddwdw | 1.80 |
| Away | wlwlw | 1.80 |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 40% | 60% |
| Average Goals Per Game | 2.50 | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| Scored | 1.40 | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| Conceded | 1.10 | 0.60 | 1.60 |
| BTTS | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| Clean Sheets | 20% | 40% | 0% |
| Failed to Score | 30% | 20% | 40% |
| Expected Goals | 1.69 | 1.84 | 1.55 |
| Expected Goals Against | 1.29 | 1.15 | 1.43 |
Alaves vs Rayo Vallecano Head to Head Statistics (H2H)
Alaves (33%)
9 Matches
Rayo Vallecano (67%)
Brighton
Everton
Leeds United
Arsenal
Wolves
Bournemouth
Chelsea
West Ham
Elche
Barcelona
Liverpool
Newcastle
