Deportivo Alaves and Real Sociedad meet in a fierce Basque derby with a place in the Copa del Rey semi-finals on the line. As both sides are likely to adopt a cautious approach, we predict a 1-1 draw. Alaves come into the clash on the back of a confidence-boosting 2–1 win over Espanyol, though midfielder Carlos Protestoni remains doubtful. Edoardo Coudet's men have looked strong at Mendizorroza with 2.17 points per game at home and a defensive record that has allowed just 0.67 goals per match in their own stadium. However, scoring remains inconsistent, with Alavés failing to net in 20% of outings.
Real Sociedad travel to Vitoria without creative players Zakharyan, Kubo and Barrenetxea, all of whom missed their 1–1 derby draw against Athletic at the weekend. Even so, Imanol’s side remain competitive: they are unbeaten in five, score regularly (1.50 goals per match), and remarkably BTTS has landed in 90% of their recent games. Defensive issues persist, though, as La Real have kept zero clean sheets across that run.
With both sides missing important midfield and attacking pieces, and given the typical Basque derby intensity, this should be a tight, combative affair. Therefore, Under 2.5 goals is our main betting tip, alongside Over 4.5 Yellow Cards and Over 1.5 Yellow Cards First Half as Basque derbies always bring tension and hard tackles.
This Copa del Rey match will be played on Wednesday 4 February 2026 at 20:00.
What is our Alaves vs Real Sociedad prediction?
Our prediction for this match: Alaves 1 - 1 Real Sociedad
Alaves vs Real Sociedad Betting Tips
- Anytime Goalscorer: Mikel Oyarzabal @ 175 Odds
- First Goalscorer: Mikel Oyarzabal @ 500 Odds
- To be booked: Ibrahim Diabate @ 130 Odds
- Asian Handicap: Real Sociedad +0.5 @ -250 Odds
- Shots on Target (Home): Over 2.5
- Shots on Target (Away): Over 2.5
- Shots on Target (Total): Over 4.5
- Total Corners: 9 - 11 @ 160 Odds
- Double Chance: 1X @ -188 Odds
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View OfferAlaves Team Form and Stats
| Form | Results | Points Per Game |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | lwlww | 1.60 |
| Home | lwdww | 2.17 |
| Away | lllw | 0.75 |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 67% | 25% |
| Average Goals Per Game | 2.30 | 2.00 | 2.75 |
| Scored | 1.10 | 1.33 | 0.75 |
| Conceded | 1.20 | 0.67 | 2.00 |
| BTTS | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Clean Sheets | 30% | 50% | 0% |
| Failed to Score | 20% | 0% | 50% |
| Expected Goals | 1.47 | 1.66 | 1.18 |
| Expected Goals Against | 1.50 | 1.42 | 1.64 |
Real Sociedad Team Form and Stats
| Form | Results | Points Per Game |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | wdwwd | 1.60 |
| Home | lddww | 1.60 |
| Away | lwdwd | 1.60 |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Average Goals Per Game | 2.70 | 3.20 | 2.20 |
| Scored | 1.50 | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| Conceded | 1.20 | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| BTTS | 90% | 100% | 80% |
| Clean Sheets | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Failed to Score | 10% | 0% | 20% |
| Expected Goals | 1.59 | 1.78 | 1.39 |
| Expected Goals Against | 1.53 | 1.76 | 1.30 |
Alaves vs Real Sociedad Head to Head Statistics (H2H)
Alaves (33%)
18 Matches
Real Sociedad (44%)
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