Athletic Bilbao vs Real Sociedad Prediction & Betting Tips | 11/02/2026

Athletic Bilbao vs Real Sociedad Prediction and Betting Tips | 11 February 2026

Bojan Jovanovic • Football expert

10 February 2026 • 12:44 UTC • 1 min read

Athletic Bilbao vs Real Sociedad Prediction and Betting Tips 11 February 2026

Athletic Bilbao head into the Basque derby full of confidence after a 4-2 win over Levante, but the potential absence of Yuri Berchiche weakens their left side. Anyhow, we predict a 1-1 draw as both Athletic Club and Real Sociedad are expected to adopt a cautious approach. The Williams brothers should start, and Athletic’s recent matches have been chaotic: an incredible 4.30 average goals per game, with BTTS in 90% and zero clean sheets. Their expected goals (1.63) and xGA (1.36) numbers show balance, but defensive lapses remain a major concern.

Real Sociedad travel to Bilbao in stronger form, winning four of their last five, though the injury to midfielder Luka Sucic—who scored at the weekend—is a blow. La Real are extremely consistent home and away (2.20 PPG across the board), and their defensive record is noticeably better: 1.20 goals conceded per game and lower xGA away (1.20). However, they are also in a BTTS streak (100% in the last five), suggesting an open, transitional game tonight.

As both sides are on long BTTS runs (neither keeping clean sheets), Both Teams to Score is our main betting tip, alongside Over 4.5 yellow cards and Over 1.5 yellow cards first half as there have always been tension and hard tackles in the Basque derby.

This Copa del Rey match will be played on Wednesday 11 February 2026 at 20:00.

What is our Athletic Bilbao vs Real Sociedad prediction?

Our prediction for this match: Athletic Bilbao 1 - 1 Real Sociedad

Athletic Bilbao vs Real Sociedad Betting Tips

Over / Under 4.5 Goals: Under 4.5 Goals @ -1400 Odds
Over / Under 3.5 Goals: Under 3.5 Goals @ -450 Odds
Anytime Goalscorer: Gorka Guruzeta @ 175 Odds
First Goalscorer: Gorka Guruzeta @ 500 Odds
To be Booked: Jon Aramburu @ 140 Odds
Asian Handicap: Real Sociedad +0.5 @ -167 Odds
European Handicap: Real Sociedad +1 @ -175 Odds
Shots on Target (Home): Over 2.5
Shots on Target (Away): Over 2.5
Shots on Target (Total): Over 4.5
Total Corners: 9 - 11 @ 162 Odds
Double Chance: X2 @ -175 Odds

Where Can You Place Bets on Athletic Bilbao vs Real Sociedad?

You can place your bets on Athletic Bilbao vs Real Sociedad at the following bookmakers:

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Athletic Bilbao Team Form and Stats

Form	Results	Points Per Game
Overall	lldww	1.40
Home	ldw	1.33
Away	wlwlw	1.43

Stats	Overall	Home	Away
Win %	40%	33%	43%
Average Goals Per Game	4.30	4.33	4.29
Scored	2.00	2.33	1.86
Conceded	2.30	2.00	2.43
BTTS	90%	100%	86%
Clean Sheets	0%	0%	0%
Failed to Score	10%	0%	14%
Expected Goals	1.63	1.77	1.56
Expected Goals Against	1.36	1.04	1.50

Real Sociedad Team Form and Stats

Form	Results	Points Per Game
Overall	wwdww	2.20
Home	ddwww	2.20
Away	wdwdw	2.20

Stats	Overall	Home	Away
Win %	60%	60%	60%
Average Goals Per Game	3.20	3.40	3.00
Scored	2.00	2.20	1.80
Conceded	1.20	1.20	1.20
BTTS	100%	100%	100%
Clean Sheets	0%	0%	0%
Failed to Score	0%	0%	0%
Expected Goals	1.59	1.72	1.46
Expected Goals Against	1.44	1.68	1.20