Athletic Bilbao head into the Basque derby full of confidence after a 4-2 win over Levante, but the potential absence of Yuri Berchiche weakens their left side. Anyhow, we predict a 1-1 draw as both Athletic Club and Real Sociedad are expected to adopt a cautious approach. The Williams brothers should start, and Athletic’s recent matches have been chaotic: an incredible 4.30 average goals per game, with BTTS in 90% and zero clean sheets. Their expected goals (1.63) and xGA (1.36) numbers show balance, but defensive lapses remain a major concern.
Real Sociedad travel to Bilbao in stronger form, winning four of their last five, though the injury to midfielder Luka Sucic—who scored at the weekend—is a blow. La Real are extremely consistent home and away (2.20 PPG across the board), and their defensive record is noticeably better: 1.20 goals conceded per game and lower xGA away (1.20). However, they are also in a BTTS streak (100% in the last five), suggesting an open, transitional game tonight.
As both sides are on long BTTS runs (neither keeping clean sheets), Both Teams to Score is our main betting tip, alongside Over 4.5 yellow cards and Over 1.5 yellow cards first half as there have always been tension and hard tackles in the Basque derby.
This Copa del Rey match will be played on Wednesday 11 February 2026 at 20:00.
What is our Athletic Bilbao vs Real Sociedad prediction?
Our prediction for this match: Athletic Bilbao 1 - 1 Real Sociedad
Athletic Bilbao vs Real Sociedad Betting Tips
- Over / Under 4.5 Goals: Under 4.5 Goals @ 1/14 Odds
- Over / Under 3.5 Goals: Under 3.5 Goals @ 2/9 Odds
- Anytime Goalscorer: Gorka Guruzeta @ 7/4 Odds
- First Goalscorer: Gorka Guruzeta @ 5/1 Odds
- To be Booked: Jon Aramburu @ 7/5 Odds
- Asian Handicap: Real Sociedad +0.5 @ 3/5 Odds
- European Handicap: Real Sociedad +1 @ 4/7 Odds
- Shots on Target (Home): Over 2.5
- Shots on Target (Away): Over 2.5
- Shots on Target (Total): Over 4.5
- Total Corners: 9 - 11 @ 13/8 Odds
- Double Chance: X2 @ 4/7 Odds
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View OfferAthletic Bilbao Team Form and Stats
| Form | Results | Points Per Game |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | dlwlwlldww | 1.40 |
| Home | ldw | 1.33 |
| Away | dlwlwlw | 1.43 |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 33% | 43% |
| Average Goals Per Game | 4.30 | 4.33 | 4.29 |
| Scored | 2.00 | 2.33 | 1.86 |
| Conceded | 2.30 | 2.00 | 2.43 |
| BTTS | 90% | 100% | 86% |
| Clean Sheets | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Failed to Score | 10% | 0% | 14% |
| Expected Goals | 1.63 | 1.77 | 1.56 |
| Expected Goals Against | 1.36 | 1.04 | 1.50 |
Real Sociedad Team Form and Stats
| Form | Results | Points Per Game |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | wddwdwwdww | 2.20 |
| Home | ddwww | 2.20 |
| Away | wdwdw | 2.20 |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| Average Goals Per Game | 3.20 | 3.40 | 3.00 |
| Scored | 2.00 | 2.20 | 1.80 |
| Conceded | 1.20 | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| BTTS | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Clean Sheets | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Failed to Score | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Expected Goals | 1.59 | 1.72 | 1.46 |
| Expected Goals Against | 1.44 | 1.68 | 1.20 |
Athletic Bilbao vs Real Sociedad Head to Head Statistics (H2H)
Athletic Bilbao (33%)
33 Matches
Real Sociedad (39%)
Athletic Bilbao vs Real Sociedad Past Results
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