Real Sociedad carry a narrow 1–0 advantage into the second leg of this fiercely contested Copa del Rey semi-final against rivals Athletic Bilbao. As both sides seem capable of finding the net, we predict a 1-1 draw. Despite missing Lebarbier, Odriozola, and Ruperez, La Real have been excellent at home, averaging 2.20 points per game and scoring 2.60 goals per home match. Their recent run (DWWW D at home) highlights consistency, and with 100% BTTS in their last five at Anoeta, they tend to produce lively encounters.
Bilbao, meanwhile, are without their star winger Nico Williams, a major creative loss. Even so, Ernesto Valverde’s men travel well, posting 2.00 points per game away and scoring 1.80 goals on average. The Lions also show 100% BTTS away, indicating they rarely leave without finding the net. Historically, these derbies are tight: from their last 34 meetings, Real Sociedad have won 14, Athletic 11, and nine ended level.
With both sides showing strong scoring patterns and the tie still finely balanced, another tense, goal-filled night looks likely. Taking everything into account, Both Teams to Score is our main betting tip, alongside Half-Time Draw and Over 4.5 yellow cards.
This Copa del Rey match will be played on Wednesday 4 March 2026 at 20:00.
What is our Real Sociedad vs Athletic Bilbao prediction?
Our prediction for this match: Real Sociedad 1 - 1 Athletic Bilbao
Real Sociedad vs Athletic Bilbao Betting Tips
- Correct Score: 1-1 @ 5/1 Odds
- Both Teams to Score (BTTS): Yes @ 4/5 Odds
- Over / Under 4.5 Goals: Under 4.5 Goals @ 1/12 Odds
- Over / Under 3.5 Goals: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1/4 Odds
- Over / Under 2.5 Goals: Under 2.5 Goals @ 3/4 Odds
- Over / Under 1.5 Goals: Over 1.5 Goals @ 1/3 Odds
- Anytime Goalscorer: Mikel Oyarzabal @ 6/4 Odds
- First Goalscorer: Mikel Oyarzabal @ 9/2 Odds
- To be Booked: Luken Beitia @ 11/8 Odds
- Asian Handicap: Real Sociedad +0.5 @ 3/8 Odds
- European Handicap: Athletic Club +1 @ 4/7 Odds
- Shots on Target (Home): Over 2.5
- Shots on Target (Away): Over 2.5
- Shots on Target (Total): Over 4.5
- Total Corners: 9 - 11 @ 13/8 Odds
- Double Chance: X2 @ 4/7 Odds
- Half Time/Full Time: X (Draw)/X (Draw) @ 4/1 Odds
- Clean Sheet: Real Sociedad - No @ 2/5 Odds
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View OfferReal Sociedad Team Form and Stats
| Form | Results | Points Per Game |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | dwwdwwwldw | 2.10 |
| Home | dwwwd | 2.20 |
| Away | dwwlw | 2.00 |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| Average Goals Per Game | 3.50 | 4.20 | 2.80 |
| Scored | 2.00 | 2.60 | 1.40 |
| Conceded | 1.50 | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| BTTS | 80% | 100% | 60% |
| Clean Sheets | 20% | 0% | 40% |
| Failed to Score | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Expected Goals | 1.49 | 1.67 | 1.30 |
| Expected Goals Against | 1.55 | 1.78 | 1.33 |
Athletic Bilbao Team Form and Stats
| Form | Results | Points Per Game |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | wlldwwlwwd | 1.70 |
| Home | ldwlw | 1.40 |
| Away | wlwwd | 2.00 |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 40% | 60% |
| Average Goals Per Game | 3.30 | 3.40 | 3.20 |
| Scored | 1.80 | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| Conceded | 1.50 | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| BTTS | 90% | 80% | 100% |
| Clean Sheets | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Failed to Score | 10% | 20% | 0% |
| Expected Goals | 1.46 | 1.76 | 1.16 |
| Expected Goals Against | 1.17 | 1.01 | 1.32 |
Real Sociedad vs Athletic Bilbao Head to Head Statistics (H2H)
Real Sociedad (41%)
34 Matches
Athletic Bilbao (32%)
Real Sociedad vs Athletic Bilbao Past Results
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