Milan vs Benfica Prediction & Betting Tips | 16/09/2026

Milan vs Benfica Prediction and Betting Tips | 16 September 2026

Bojan Jovanovic • Football expert

14 September 2026 • 09:23 UTC • 1 min read

Milan vs Benfica Prediction and Betting Tips 16 September 2026

Stadio San Siro will host an eagerly-awaited Europa League round-one derby as Milan welcome a Benfica side chasing an eighth consecutive victory in all competitions. The Rossoneri showed plenty of character at the weekend, recovering from two goals down to draw 2-2 with Lazio and remain unbeaten in the new Serie A campaign. Christian Pulisic is pushing for a start, while Diego Moreira could also feature from the outset after scoring twice as a substitute. Ruben Amorim has a full squad available.

Benfica travel to Milano full of confidence after comfortably overcoming Aarhus in the playoffs. Vangelis Pavlidis has been in sensational scoring form and will be the main threat, with Joao Palhinha and Dodi Lukebakio also pushing for starts. Alexander Bah remains sidelined. Benfica have won 80% of their last 10 away matches, scoring an impressive 3.60 goals per game and conceding only 0.40, while their 2.06 xG highlights their attacking strength.

As both sides possess considerable attacking quality, we are tempted to bet on Over 2.5 goals, alongside Benfica Over 1.5 and Both Teams to Score (Benfica average 3.60 goals away).

This Europa League match will be played on Wednesday 16 September 2026 at 20:00.

What is our Milan vs Benfica prediction?

Our prediction for this match: Milan 2 - 2 Benfica

Milan vs Benfica Betting Tips

Correct Score: 2-2 @ 1000 Odds
Both Teams to Score (BTTS): Yes @ -188 Odds
Over / Under 4.5 Goals: Under 4.5 Goals @ -500 Odds
Over / Under 3.5 Goals: Over 3.5 Goals @ 150 Odds
Over / Under 2.5 Goals: Over 2.5 Goals @ -150 Odds
Over / Under 1.5 Goals: Over 1.5 Goals @ -500 Odds
Anytime Goalscorer: Goncalo Ramos @ 120 Odds
First Goalscorer: Goncalo Ramos @ 450 Odds
To be Booked: Strahinja Pavlovic @ 162 Odds
Asian Handicap: Benfica +0.5 @ -149 Odds
European Handicap: Benfica +1 @ -150 Odds
Shots on Target (Home): Over 4.5
Shots on Target (Away): Over 4.5
Shots on Target (Total): Over 9.5
Total Corners: 9 - 11 @ 162 Odds
Double Chance: X2 @ -150 Odds
Half Time/Full Time: X (Draw)/X (Draw) @ 500 Odds
Clean Sheet: AC Milan - No @ -350 Odds

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Milan Team Form and Stats

Form	Results	Points Per Game
Overall	wlddlwwwdd	1.60
Home	ldw	1.33
Away	wdlwwdd	1.71

Stats	Overall	Home	Away
Win %	40%	33%	43%
Average Goals Per Game	3.20	2.33	3.57
Scored	1.70	1.33	1.86
Conceded	1.50	1.00	1.71
BTTS	80%	67%	86%
Clean Sheets	10%	33%	0%
Failed to Score	10%	0%	14%
Expected Goals	1.30	1.39	1.25
Expected Goals Against	1.39	1.72	1.25

Benfica Team Form and Stats

Form	Results	Points Per Game
Overall	wddwwwwwww	2.60
Home	wdwww	2.60
Away	dwwww	2.60

Stats	Overall	Home	Away
Win %	80%	80%	80%
Average Goals Per Game	4.20	4.40	4.00
Scored	3.40	3.20	3.60
Conceded	0.80	1.20	0.40
BTTS	70%	100%	40%
Clean Sheets	30%	0%	60%
Failed to Score	0%	0%	0%
Expected Goals	2.42	2.79	2.06
Expected Goals Against	0.67	0.65	0.69