Newcastle host Bournemouth in the FA Cup last-64 looking to extend their solid recent run, having picked up three wins from their last five matches. Given Bournemouth's defensive struggles, our prediction firmly points toward a 2-1 home win. The Magpies have been reliable at St James’ Park, averaging 2.20 points per game at home and scoring 2.00 goals per match, while their 80% BTTS rate on home soil reflects both their attacking output and defensive fragility. Jacob Murphy remains doubtful after suffering a knock against Crystal Palace, but Eddie Howe’s side still enter as clear favourites.
The Cherries, meanwhile, are struggling to convert performances into victories, sitting on a five-match winless run (DDLDL). Despite failing to win away all season, Andoni Iraola’s side often produce chaotic games on the road, with their away fixtures averaging 5.20 goals—the highest of any competition round participant. Defensively, they remain vulnerable, conceding 3.40 goals per away match, while their 0% away clean-sheet rate underlines their inconsistency.
Given Newcastle’s superior home efficiency (1.76 xG at home) and Bournemouth’s leaky defence, we predict Home Win, with additional value on BTTS and Over 2.5 goals as the Cherries' away games average 5.20 goals.
This FA Cup match will be played on Saturday 10 January 2026 at 15:00.
What is our Newcastle vs Bournemouth prediction?
Our prediction for this match: Newcastle 2 - 1 Bournemouth
Newcastle vs Bournemouth Betting Tips
- Correct Score: 2-1
- Both Teams To Score (BTTS): Yes
- Over / Under 2.5 Goals: Over 2.5 Goals
- Over / Under 1.5 Goals: Over 1.5 Goals
- Goalscorer: Nick Woltemade @ -105 Odds
- To be booked: Alex Scott @ 162 Odds
- Shots on Target (Home): Over 4.5
- Shots on Target (Away): Over 2.5
- Shots on Target (Total): Over 7.5
- Total Corners: 9 - 11 @ 162 Odds
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View OfferNewcastle Team Form and Stats
| Form | Results | Points Per Game |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | dlwww | 1.80 |
| Home | wwdww | 2.33 |
| Away | dllw | 1.00 |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 67% | 25% |
| Average Goals Per Game | 3.30 | 3.83 | 2.50 |
| Scored | 1.90 | 2.33 | 1.25 |
| Conceded | 1.40 | 1.50 | 1.25 |
| BTTS | 70% | 83% | 50% |
| Clean Sheets | 10% | 17% | 0% |
| Failed to Score | 20% | 0% | 50% |
| Expected Goals | 1.75 | 1.84 | 1.63 |
| Expected Goals Against | 1.23 | 1.17 | 1.31 |
Bournemouth Team Form and Stats
| Form | Results | Points Per Game |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | dldlw | 0.80 |
| Home | lddlw | 1.00 |
| Away | ldld | 0.50 |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Win % | 10% | 17% | 0% |
| Average Goals Per Game | 3.90 | 2.83 | 5.50 |
| Scored | 1.70 | 1.33 | 2.25 |
| Conceded | 2.20 | 1.50 | 3.25 |
| BTTS | 80% | 67% | 100% |
| Clean Sheets | 10% | 17% | 0% |
| Failed to Score | 20% | 33% | 0% |
| Expected Goals | 1.76 | 1.58 | 2.05 |
| Expected Goals Against | 1.51 | 1.20 | 1.96 |
Newcastle vs Bournemouth Head to Head Statistics (H2H)
Newcastle (31%)
16 Matches
Bournemouth (25%)
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