Napoli and Milan lock horns in the Super Cup semi-final in what is expected to be a close encounter (1-1). Napoli’s numbers point towards a more cautious profile, with their last five games averaging just 1.70 goals, while they score only 0.90 goals per match overall. Defensive solidity has been key, as they concede 0.80 goals on average and keep a clean sheet in 40% of matches. At home, Napoli look more reliable, posting 2.00 points per game and conceding only 0.50 goals, backed up by an expected goals against of 1.01. However, the hosts are weakened by several absentees, with De Bruyne, Anguissa, Lukaku and Gilmour all sidelined, which clearly impacts their attacking depth.
The Rossoneri head into this clash in better rhythm, collecting 1.90 points per game overall and averaging 2.60 total goals per match. They score 1.50 goals per game, with BTTS landing in 60% of their fixtures. Milan’s underlying numbers are solid too, with an expected goals of 1.47. The Rossoneri will miss forwards Rafael Leao and Santiago Gimenez, while Matteo Gabbia remains a major doubt.
Given Napoli’s low-scoring trend and Milan's absences up front, there is big value in betting on Under 2.5 goals. Additionally, Draw and Half-Time Draw bets should be considered.
This Italy Super Cup match will be played on Thursday 18 December 2025 at 19:00.
What is our Napoli vs Milan prediction?
Our prediction for this match: Napoli 1 - 1 Milan
Napoli vs Milan Betting Tips
- Correct Score: 1-1
- Both Teams To Score (BTTS): Yes
- Over / Under 2.5 Goals: Under 2.5 Goals
- Over / Under 1.5 Goals: Over 1.5 Goals
- Shots on Target (Home): Over 2.5
- Shots on Target (Away): Over 2.5
- Shots on Target (Total): Over 4.5
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View OfferNapoli Team Form and Stats
| Form | Results | Points Per Game |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | wdwll | 1.50 |
| Home | dwwdw | 2.00 |
| Away | lwll | 0.75 |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 50% | 25% |
| Average Goals Per Game | 1.70 | 1.83 | 1.50 |
| Scored | 0.90 | 1.33 | 0.25 |
| Conceded | 0.80 | 0.50 | 1.25 |
| BTTS | 30% | 50% | 0% |
| Clean Sheets | 40% | 50% | 25% |
| Failed to Score | 50% | 33% | 75% |
| Expected Goals | 1.31 | 1.58 | 0.90 |
| Expected Goals Against | 1.13 | 1.01 | 1.32 |
Milan Team Form and Stats
| Form | Results | Points Per Game |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | wwlwd | 1.90 |
| Home | wdwwd | 2.20 |
| Away | ddwlw | 1.60 |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 60% | 40% |
| Average Goals Per Game | 2.60 | 2.60 | 2.60 |
| Scored | 1.50 | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| Conceded | 1.10 | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| BTTS | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| Clean Sheets | 30% | 40% | 20% |
| Failed to Score | 10% | 0% | 20% |
| Expected Goals | 1.47 | 1.78 | 1.16 |
| Expected Goals Against | 1.34 | 1.17 | 1.52 |
Napoli vs Milan Head to Head Statistics (H2H)
Napoli (37%)
38 Matches
Milan (29%)
Crystal Palace
KuPS
Shamrock Rovers
Hamrun
Sigma Olomuc
Lech Poznan
Slovan Bratislava
Hacken
Sparta Prague
Aberdeen
Strasbourg
Breidablik
