NEC Nijmegen aim to reach the Dutch Cup final, but they enter the semifinal low on confidence after a 3-2 league defeat to Fortuna Sittard. As PSV are enjoying yet another season to remember, we predict a 2-1 away win. NEC boss Dick Schreuder can at least rely on a full squad, which is a welcome boost ahead of a one-match knockout. Nijmegen’s numbers show a strong attacking output at home, averaging 2.00 goals per game and producing 1.95 xG, but their defensive issues remain evident with 1.60 goals conceded on average and only 20% home clean sheets.
PSV, meanwhile, travel full of confidence following a 3-1 victory over Heracles Almelo, and crucially, the visitors report no fresh injury worries. The Eredivisie leaders have been consistently dangerous in attack, generating 2.06 xG overall and scoring 2.10 goals per match. However, their away defence is less reliable, conceding 1.60 goals on average, which keeps this tie more open than the odds may suggest.
History is firmly on PSV’s side, with the Eindhoven giants winning 17 of the last 20 meetings. Given NEC's poor display in the defeat to Fortuna Sittard, we predict a 2-1 away win. Both Teams to Score (Nijmegen 90%, PSV 80%) and Over 2.5 goals bets seem appealing as well (80% H2H).
This KNVB Cup match will be played on Tuesday 3 March 2026 at 19:00.
What is our Nijmegen vs PSV prediction?
Our prediction for this match: Nijmegen 1 - 2 PSV
Nijmegen vs PSV Betting Tips
- European Handicap: PSV +1 @ -450 Odds
- Shots on Target (Home): Over 2.5
- Shots on Target (Away): Over 4.5
- Shots on Target (Total): Over 7.5
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View OfferNijmegen Team Form and Stats
| Form | Results | Points Per Game |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | wwwwwwlddl | 2.00 |
| Home | wwwll | 1.80 |
| Away | wwwdd | 2.20 |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| Average Goals Per Game | 3.60 | 3.60 | 3.60 |
| Scored | 2.10 | 2.00 | 2.20 |
| Conceded | 1.50 | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| BTTS | 90% | 80% | 100% |
| Clean Sheets | 10% | 20% | 0% |
| Failed to Score | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Expected Goals | 1.83 | 1.95 | 1.71 |
| Expected Goals Against | 1.30 | 1.27 | 1.32 |
PSV Team Form and Stats
| Form | Results | Points Per Game |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | wldlwwwlww | 1.90 |
| Home | dlwww | 2.00 |
| Away | wlwlw | 1.80 |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| Average Goals Per Game | 3.50 | 3.80 | 3.20 |
| Scored | 2.10 | 2.60 | 1.60 |
| Conceded | 1.40 | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| BTTS | 80% | 80% | 80% |
| Clean Sheets | 10% | 20% | 0% |
| Failed to Score | 10% | 0% | 20% |
| Expected Goals | 2.06 | 2.11 | 2.01 |
| Expected Goals Against | 1.16 | 1.17 | 1.15 |
Nijmegen vs PSV Head to Head Statistics (H2H)
Nijmegen (5%)
20 Matches
PSV (85%)
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