Plymouth vs Burton Prediction & Betting Tips | 04/01/2026

Plymouth vs Burton Prediction and Betting Tips | 4 January 2026

Bojan Jovanovic • Football expert

3 January 2026 • 13:02 UTC • 1 min read

Plymouth vs Burton Prediction and Betting Tips 4 January 2026

Plymouth extended their unbeaten run to five matches with a 1-1 draw at Stevenage. With Burton struggling on the road, we predict a 1-0 home win. Owen Oseni picked up an injury in the midweek draw, but his absence should not greatly affect the Plymouth first XI. The Pilgrims’ overall form (WWLDD) is strong, and their away results remain exceptional, but their home record is the key concern: just 0.80 PPG, only 20% wins, and 1.80 goals conceded per match at Home Park. Their xGA at home (1.50) also indicates ongoing defensive vulnerability. Still, Plymouth are usually competitive going forward, failing to score in only 40% of home games and averaging 2.40 total match goals on their own turf.

The Brewers, meanwhile, continue to struggle for consistency, coming off a 2-0 loss at Reading. Their recent form (DDWLL) is trending downward, with problems in the final third—50% failed to score overall and away from home. Defensively they remain unstable, keeping 0% away clean sheets while conceding 1.50 goals per away match. Their expected goals figures (1.34 away) do show they can create, but end-product remains unreliable.

Given Plymouth's promising form at home and Burton's offensive struggles on the road, Home Win is our main betting tip for this League One matchup, with additional value on Under 2.5 and Under 3.5 goals.

This League 1 match will be played on Sunday 4 January 2026 at 15:00.

What is our Plymouth vs Burton prediction?

Our prediction for this match: Plymouth 1 - 0 Burton

Plymouth vs Burton Betting Tips

Correct Score: 1-0
Both Teams To Score (BTTS): No
Over / Under 2.5 Goals: Under 2.5 Goals
Over / Under 1.5 Goals: Under 1.5 Goals
Goalscorer: Lorent Tolaj @ 120 Odds
Shots on Target (Home): Over 2.5
Shots on Target (Away): Under 2.5
Shots on Target (Total): Over 2.5
Total Corners: 9 - 11 @ 160 Odds

Where Can You Place Bets on Plymouth vs Burton?

You can place your bets on Plymouth vs Burton at the following bookmakers:

Min deposit requirement. Free Bets are paid as Bet Credits and are available for use upon settlement of bets to value of qualifying deposit. Min odds, bet and payment method exclusions apply. Returns exclude Bet Credits stake. Time limits and T&Cs apply. Registration required. #Ad / GambleAware.org / 18+

View Offer

Best 🏆

18+. GambleAware.org. New GB customers only. Min £10 debit card deposit. Place a £10+ bet at Evens or greater (2.0) each leg on Sports within 7 days. Opt in for £20 in free bets. Valid for 7 days. Geographical restrictions and T&C’s apply. #Ad / GambleAware.org / 18+

View Offer

18+. New customers using Promo code TOP30 only, Min £10/€10/$10 stake, min odds 1.5, free bets paid as 2 x £15/€15/$15, free bets credited after settlement of first qualifying bet, free bets will expire 30 days after the qualifying bet is settled, payment method/player/country restrictions apply. See full terms below. Play responsibly. Gamblingtherapy.org #Ad / GambleAware.org / 18+

View Offer

18+ New UK+ROI customers only. Certain deposit methods & bet types excl. Min first £/€5 bet within 14 days of account reg at min odds 1/2 to get 4 x £/€5 free bets (selected sportsbook markets only, valid 7 days, stake not returned. Restrictions + T&Cs apply. #Ad / GambleAware.org / 18+

View Offer

18+ New UK+ROI Customers only. Certain deposit methods & bet types excl. Min first £/€5 bet within 14 days of account reg at min odds 1/2 to get 4x £/€5 free bets. Free bets available to use on selected sportsbook markets only. Free bets valid for 7 days, stake not returned. Restrictions + T&Cs apply. #Ad / GambleAware.org / 18+

View Offer

Plymouth Team Form and Stats

Form	Results	Points Per Game
Overall	wwldd	1.70
Home	llwld	0.80
Away	wwwwd	2.60

Stats	Overall	Home	Away
Win %	50%	20%	80%
Average Goals Per Game	2.30	2.40	2.20
Scored	1.20	0.60	1.80
Conceded	1.10	1.80	0.40
BTTS	40%	40%	40%
Clean Sheets	40%	20%	60%
Failed to Score	20%	40%	0%
Expected Goals	1.20	1.19	1.22
Expected Goals Against	1.44	1.50	1.37

Burton Team Form and Stats

Form	Results	Points Per Game
Overall	ddwll	1.10
Home	wldwl	1.17
Away	lwdl	1.00

Stats	Overall	Home	Away
Win %	30%	33%	25%
Average Goals Per Game	2.80	2.83	2.75
Scored	1.20	1.17	1.25
Conceded	1.60	1.67	1.50
BTTS	40%	33%	50%
Clean Sheets	20%	33%	0%
Failed to Score	50%	50%	50%
Expected Goals	1.50	1.60	1.34
Expected Goals Against	1.30	1.37	1.20