MK Dons head into their first home game of 2026 following a narrow 1-0 defeat to Colchester, with no fresh injury concerns. As key defender is banned for Chesterfield, our prediction firmly points toward a 2-1 home win. The Dons have been solid at home this season, picking up 2.33 points per game, scoring 1.67 goals per match, and conceding just 0.67. Their attack has been productive, with 60% of games seeing both teams score (BTTS), while their defense has kept 33% clean sheets at home.
Chesterfield will be without key defender Kyle McFadzean, suspended after a red card in their 1-1 draw with Oldham. The Spireites are slightly less consistent than MK Dons, winning 1.2 points per game overall, with a tendency for high-scoring encounters — both teams have scored in 70% of their matches, and they average 3.0 goals per game. H2H stats show a balanced history: both teams have 4 wins each in their last 11 meetings, with BTTS in 55% of games and under 2.5 goals in 55%, suggesting moderate scoring.
Given MK Dons' fine form at home and Chesterfield's absence at the back, Home Win is our main betting pick for this League Two matchup. Additionally, Over 2.5 goals and BTTS markets seem appealing.
This League 2 match will be played on Sunday 4 January 2026 at 12:00.
What is our MK Dons vs Chesterfield prediction?
Our prediction for this match: MK Dons 2 - 1 Chesterfield
MK Dons vs Chesterfield Betting Tips
- Correct Score: 2-1
- Both Teams To Score (BTTS): Yes
- Over / Under 2.5 Goals: Over 2.5 Goals
- Over / Under 1.5 Goals: Over 1.5 Goals
- Goalscorer: Aaron Collins @ 140 Odds
- Shots on Target (Home): Over 4.5
- Shots on Target (Away): Over 2.5
- Shots on Target (Total): Over 7.5
- Total Corners: 9 - 11 @ 162 Odds
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View OfferMK Dons Team Form and Stats
| Form | Results | Points Per Game |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | dwwdl | 1.80 |
| Home | wwdwd | 2.33 |
| Away | dlwl | 1.00 |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 67% | 25% |
| Average Goals Per Game | 2.80 | 2.33 | 3.50 |
| Scored | 1.80 | 1.67 | 2.00 |
| Conceded | 1.00 | 0.67 | 1.50 |
| BTTS | 60% | 67% | 50% |
| Clean Sheets | 30% | 33% | 25% |
| Failed to Score | 10% | 0% | 25% |
| Expected Goals | 1.52 | 1.38 | 1.74 |
| Expected Goals Against | 1.17 | 1.18 | 1.15 |
Chesterfield Team Form and Stats
| Form | Results | Points Per Game |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | wwwld | 1.20 |
| Home | llwwl | 1.20 |
| Away | dldwd | 1.20 |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Win % | 30% | 40% | 20% |
| Average Goals Per Game | 3.00 | 2.60 | 3.40 |
| Scored | 1.40 | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| Conceded | 1.60 | 1.20 | 2.00 |
| BTTS | 70% | 60% | 80% |
| Clean Sheets | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Failed to Score | 10% | 20% | 0% |
| Expected Goals | 1.28 | 1.39 | 1.16 |
| Expected Goals Against | 1.36 | 1.08 | 1.63 |
MK Dons vs Chesterfield Head to Head Statistics (H2H)
MK Dons (36%)
11 Matches
Chesterfield (36%)
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