Italy will be eager to return to winning ways in the Nations League after producing a promising display in a 1-1 draw with France, having competed well against one of the group favourites. Nicolo Barella is widely expected to return to the starting XI, while Bryan Cristante, Federico Dimarco, Manuel Locatelli, Giacomo Raspadori and Leonardo Spinazzola remain in the recovery room. Moise Kean has been producing fine displays of late and should prove a handful for the Turkish back line. Italy have been particularly productive in front of goal at home, averaging 3.00 goals per game across their last six matches.
Turkey, meanwhile, were comfortably beaten 3-0 by Belgium in their latest Group 1 outing and remain without several key attacking players. Hakan Calhanoglu and Kenan Yildiz are both injured, while Real Madrid ace Arda Güler is suspended, leaving Vincenzo Montella with considerably fewer creative options. Turkey have also struggled to find the net away from home, scoring just 0.75 goals per game across their last four road fixtures. Italy have dominated this matchup historically, winning three of the last four meetings, while the Azzurri also produced a convincing 4-1 victory when these sides met in September.
Italy’s stronger home numbers, superior H2H record and Turkey’s attacking absences make Italy to Win sure betting tip. Additionally, Keane to Score and Italy Over 1.5 goals markets seem tempting given the Azzurri's 3.00-goal average at home.
This Nations League match will be played on Monday 5 October 2026 at 19:45.
What is our Italy vs Turkey prediction?
Our prediction for this match: Italy 3 - 0 Turkey
Italy vs Turkey Betting Tips
- Correct Score: 3-0 @ 1100 Odds
- Both Teams to Score (BTTS): No @ 100 Odds
- Over / Under 4.5 Goals: Under 4.5 Goals @ -550 Odds
- Over / Under 3.5 Goals: Under 3.5 Goals @ -225 Odds
- Over / Under 2.5 Goals: Over 2.5 Goals @ -154 Odds
- Over / Under 1.5 Goals: Over 1.5 Goals @ -500 Odds
- Anytime Goalscorer: Gianluca Scamacca @ 110 Odds
- First Goalscorer: Gianluca Scamacca @ 400 Odds
- To be Booked: Irfan Kahveci @ 187 Odds
- European Handicap: Italy +1 @ -700 Odds
- Shots on Target (Home): Over 7.5
- Shots on Target (Away): Under 2.5
- Shots on Target (Total): Over 7.5
- Total Corners: 9 - 11 @ 160 Odds
- Double Chance: 12 @ -550 Odds
- Draw No Bet: Italy to Win @ -450 Odds
- Half Time/Full Time: Italy to Win/Italy to Win @ 130 Odds
- Clean Sheet: Italy - Yes @ 150 Odds
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View OfferItaly Team Form and Stats
| Form | Results | Points Per Game |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | wwlwdwwlwd | 2.00 |
| Home | wlwl | 1.50 |
| Away | wdwwwd | 2.33 |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 50% | 67% |
| Average Goals Per Game | 2.50 | 3.00 | 2.17 |
| Scored | 1.60 | 1.50 | 1.67 |
| Conceded | 0.90 | 1.50 | 0.50 |
| BTTS | 40% | 25% | 50% |
| Clean Sheets | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Failed to Score | 10% | 25% | 0% |
| Expected Goals | 1.72 | 1.92 | 1.59 |
| Expected Goals Against | 1.49 | 1.35 | 1.58 |
Turkey Team Form and Stats
| Form | Results | Points Per Game |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | wwwwllwlll | 1.50 |
| Home | wwlwll | 1.50 |
| Away | wwll | 1.50 |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Average Goals Per Game | 2.60 | 2.83 | 2.25 |
| Scored | 1.20 | 1.50 | 0.75 |
| Conceded | 1.40 | 1.33 | 1.50 |
| BTTS | 30% | 33% | 25% |
| Clean Sheets | 30% | 33% | 25% |
| Failed to Score | 40% | 33% | 50% |
| Expected Goals | 1.95 | 1.85 | 2.11 |
| Expected Goals Against | 1.24 | 1.16 | 1.37 |
Italy vs Turkey Head to Head Statistics (H2H)
Italy (75%)
4 Matches
Turkey (0%)
Italy vs Turkey Past Results
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