AZ Alkmaar look to bounce back quickly after a disappointing 3-1 defeat at Zwolle, but the hosts may be without influential midfielder Sven Mijnans, who remains doubtful after picking up a knock. The Cheese Farmers, though, are still seen as hot favourites and we predict that they will defeat Excelsior 3-1. AZ have been far stronger at home this season, averaging 2.20 points per game and boasting an excellent defensive record at the AFAS Stadion—conceding just 0.40 goals per match and keeping 80% clean sheets. Their attacking numbers also impress, scoring 2.20 goals per home game with an expected goals of 2.21, underlining their consistent threat in front of goal.
The Rotterdammers, meanwhile, travel with a full squad after a 2-2 draw with Telstar, but their away form remains a major concern. They collect only 0.80 points per game on the road, conceding 2.20 goals per away match and keeping 0 clean sheets. Their matches tend to be open, averaging 3.20 goals, but a high 40% failed-to-score rate away highlights their inconsistency.
Historically, AZ dominate this matchup with 8 wins from 17 meetings and 94% of those producing over 1.5 goals, suggesting another lively contest. AZ have turned their AFAS Stadion into a real fortress, Home Win is our main betting tip for this matchup, alongside Over 2.5 goals as both teams show high goals-per-game averages.
This Netherlands Eredivisie match will be played on Wednesday 21 January 2026 at 17:45.
What is our AZ vs Excelsior prediction?
Our prediction for this match: AZ 3 - 1 Excelsior
AZ vs Excelsior Betting Tips
- Correct Score: 3-1
- Both Teams To Score (BTTS): Yes
- Over / Under 2.5 Goals: Over 2.5 Goals
- Over / Under 1.5 Goals: Over 1.5 Goals
- Anytime Goalscorer: Troy Parrott @ -150 Odds
- To be booked: Gyan de Regt @ 225 Odds
- Shots on Target (Home): Over 7.5
- Shots on Target (Away): Over 2.5
- Shots on Target (Total): Over 9.5
- Total Corners: 9 - 11 @ 162 Odds
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View OfferAZ Team Form and Stats
| Form | Results | Points Per Game |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | dlwwl | 1.70 |
| Home | wddww | 2.20 |
| Away | lwwll | 1.20 |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 60% | 40% |
| Average Goals Per Game | 3.20 | 2.60 | 3.80 |
| Scored | 2.10 | 2.20 | 2.00 |
| Conceded | 1.10 | 0.40 | 1.80 |
| BTTS | 40% | 20% | 60% |
| Clean Sheets | 50% | 80% | 20% |
| Failed to Score | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Expected Goals | 1.96 | 2.21 | 1.72 |
| Expected Goals Against | 0.99 | 0.88 | 1.09 |
Excelsior Team Form and Stats
| Form | Results | Points Per Game |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | wlwld | 1.10 |
| Home | lwlwd | 1.40 |
| Away | lldwl | 0.80 |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Win % | 30% | 40% | 20% |
| Average Goals Per Game | 2.90 | 2.60 | 3.20 |
| Scored | 1.10 | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| Conceded | 1.80 | 1.40 | 2.20 |
| BTTS | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| Clean Sheets | 10% | 20% | 0% |
| Failed to Score | 30% | 20% | 40% |
| Expected Goals | 1.47 | 1.30 | 1.64 |
| Expected Goals Against | 1.79 | 1.64 | 1.95 |
AZ vs Excelsior Head to Head Statistics (H2H)
AZ (47%)
17 Matches
Excelsior (18%)
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