As Ajax will be fully focused on the national championship following their Champions League elimination, we predict a 2-1 away win. The Rotterdammers continue to look competitive despite limited squad depth, and while forward Mike van Duinen is unlikely to feature after picking up a knock against Twente, his absence won’t majorly alter Ruben den Uil's plans. The hosts are unbeaten in four and have shown resilience, with 70% BTTS across their recent matches and a respectable 1.40 points per game at home. However, defensive vulnerability remains: Excelsior concede 1.6 goals per match overall and allow 1.75 xGA, one of the worst defensive metrics in the league.
Ajax travel to Feyenoord with only Berghuis and Itakura unavailable, a relatively light injury list. Their form has been strong, winning 3 of the last 5, and they maintain a consistent 2.00 points per game both home and away. The Amsterdam side score heavily—2.8 goals per away match, 5.4 goals per game on average—but concede frequently on the road as well (2.6 allowed, 80% BTTS away).
Historically, Ajax dominate this matchup, winning 13 of the last 17 H2Hs, and these games often deliver goals, with 71% over 2.5 and 53% over 3.5. Given Ajax's better H2H record and scoring metrics, we predict Away Win, alongside Over 2.5 goals and Ajax Over 1.5 goals.
This Netherlands Eredivisie match will be played on Sunday 1 February 2026 at 11:15.
What is our Excelsior vs Ajax prediction?
Our prediction for this match: Excelsior 1 - 2 Ajax
Excelsior vs Ajax Betting Tips
- Anytime Goalscorer: Troy Parrott @ -120 Odds
- First Goalscorer: Troy Parrott @ 350 Odds
- To be Booked: Gyan de Regt @ 225 Odds
- Asian Handicap: Excelsior +1.5 @ -223 Odds
- Shots on Target (Home): Over 2.5
- Shots on Target (Away): Over 4.5
- Shots on Target (Total): Over 7.5
- Total Corners: 9 - 11 @ 162 Odds
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View OfferExcelsior Team Form and Stats
| Form | Results | Points Per Game |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | wlddd | 1.30 |
| Home | lwlwd | 1.40 |
| Away | dwldd | 1.20 |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Win % | 30% | 40% | 20% |
| Average Goals Per Game | 2.80 | 2.60 | 3.00 |
| Scored | 1.20 | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| Conceded | 1.60 | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| BTTS | 70% | 60% | 80% |
| Clean Sheets | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Failed to Score | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Expected Goals | 1.24 | 1.30 | 1.19 |
| Expected Goals Against | 1.75 | 1.65 | 1.84 |
Ajax Team Form and Stats
| Form | Results | Points Per Game |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | ldwwl | 2.00 |
| Home | wwdwl | 2.00 |
| Away | wdwlw | 2.00 |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| Average Goals Per Game | 4.20 | 3.00 | 5.40 |
| Scored | 2.50 | 2.20 | 2.80 |
| Conceded | 1.70 | 0.80 | 2.60 |
| BTTS | 60% | 40% | 80% |
| Clean Sheets | 30% | 60% | 0% |
| Failed to Score | 10% | 0% | 20% |
| Expected Goals | 1.93 | 2.11 | 1.79 |
| Expected Goals Against | 1.51 | 1.28 | 1.70 |
Excelsior vs Ajax Head to Head Statistics (H2H)
Excelsior (6%)
17 Matches
Ajax (76%)
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