Alverca return home looking to build on their narrow 1-0 win, but the squad remains weakened with Diarra, Leo Chu, Mendes, and Paulo all expected to miss out again. Therefore, we predict that they will play out a 1-1 draw with Moreirense. Their overall numbers highlight inconsistency: Alverca average only 0.7 goals per match while conceding 2.0, and have failed to score in 40% of their league games. At home they show slightly more stability, taking 1.40 points per game, yet their expected goals of 1.24 suggests they struggle to create high-quality chances. Clean sheets (40% at home) have occasionally kept them competitive, but their attack remains a clear weakness.
Moreirense head into the match with momentum after going unbeaten in their last three matches, including a solid 1.33 PPG away record. Their attacking output is more reliable, scoring 1.33 goals per away game and posting a stronger defensive record with 50% away clean sheets. With Dinis Pinto returning from suspension, their back line regains depth and balance.
As Alverca are low-scoring, conservative at home, we believe that there is big value in betting on Under 2.5 goals. Additionally, Draw and Half-Time Draw bets are worth considering.
This Portugal Primeira Liga match will be played on Saturday 17 January 2026 at 18:00.
What is our Alverca vs Moreirense prediction?
Our prediction for this match: Alverca 1 - 1 Moreirense
Alverca vs Moreirense Betting Tips
- Correct Score: 1-1
- Both Teams To Score (BTTS): Yes
- Over / Under 2.5 Goals: Under 2.5 Goals
- Over / Under 1.5 Goals: Over 1.5 Goals
- Anytime Goalscorer: Felipe Lima @ 200 Odds
- Shots on Target (Home): Over 2.5
- Shots on Target (Away): Over 2.5
- Shots on Target (Total): Over 4.5
- Total Corners: 6 - 8 @ 160 Odds
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View OfferAlverca Team Form and Stats
| Form | Results | Points Per Game |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | wlllw | 1.00 |
| Home | ldwlw | 1.40 |
| Away | llwll | 0.60 |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Win % | 30% | 40% | 20% |
| Average Goals Per Game | 2.70 | 2.20 | 3.20 |
| Scored | 0.70 | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| Conceded | 2.00 | 1.60 | 2.40 |
| BTTS | 30% | 20% | 40% |
| Clean Sheets | 30% | 40% | 20% |
| Failed to Score | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Expected Goals | 1.08 | 1.24 | 0.92 |
| Expected Goals Against | 1.58 | 1.50 | 1.66 |
Moreirense Team Form and Stats
| Form | Results | Points Per Game |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | dldww | 1.20 |
| Home | ldlw | 1.00 |
| Away | wlddw | 1.33 |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Win % | 30% | 25% | 33% |
| Average Goals Per Game | 2.60 | 3.00 | 2.33 |
| Scored | 1.20 | 1.00 | 1.33 |
| Conceded | 1.40 | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| BTTS | 40% | 50% | 33% |
| Clean Sheets | 40% | 25% | 50% |
| Failed to Score | 30% | 25% | 33% |
| Expected Goals | 1.12 | 0.94 | 1.24 |
| Expected Goals Against | 1.29 | 1.48 | 1.16 |
Alverca vs Moreirense Head to Head Statistics (H2H)
Alverca (0%)
1 Matches
Moreirense (100%)
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