What is our Benfica vs Porto prediction?
Benfica
1 - 0
Porto
Our prediction for this match: Benfica 1 - 0 Porto
Benfica vs Porto Preview
Sparkles will be flying when Benfica and Porto lock horns in the Primeira Liga derby on Sunday evening. As Benfica have found their best form of late, our prediction leans toward a 1-0 home win. The Eagles are not enjoying a season to remember, but their four-game winning run is surely giving fans a reason for optimism ahead of Porto’s visit. With Jose Mourinho’s men conceding only 0.80 goals per home game of late, a low-scoring derby is on the cards. Midfielder Fredrik Aursnes misses out with injury, but Jose Mourinho has strength in depth.
The Dragons, on the other hand, are still without top scorer Samu, who remains in the recovery room. Despite his absence, Porto have won each of their last three league matches to retain top position in the standings, but beating Benfica at Estadio da Luz is easier said than done. The fact that the league leaders have been conceding only 0.70 goals per game of late definitely supports our betting angle. Defender Jan Bednarek unlikely to feature for Porto after picking up a knock in the Taca de Portugal loss to Sporting CP.
As both Benfica and Porto are likely to adopt a cautious approach in Sunday’s derby, Under 2.5 goals seems like a sure bet. Additionally, Over 5.5 yellow cards and Benfica to Win bets seem appealing (Porto struggle up front without Samu).
This Portugal Primeira Liga match will be played on Sunday, 8 March 2026 at 18:00.
- Competition
- Portugal Primeira Liga
- Kick-off
- Sun 8 Mar, 18:00UK time
Benfica vs Porto Betting Tips
| Betting Tip | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Correct ScoreBenfica 1-0 Porto | 5/1 | |
| Double Chance12 | 4/11 | |
| Draw No BetBenfica | 2/5 | |
| Half Time/Full TimeBenfica / Benfica | 12/5 | |
| Asian HandicapBenfica 0 | 17/40 | |
| European HandicapBenfica +1 | 2/9 | |
| Both Teams to ScoreNo | 4/6 | |
| Over / Under 1.5 GoalsUnder 1.5 Goals | 13/8 | |
| Over / Under 2.5 GoalsUnder 2.5 Goals | 8/15 | |
| Over / Under 3.5 GoalsUnder 3.5 Goals | 2/11 | |
| Over / Under 4.5 GoalsUnder 4.5 Goals | 1/20 | |
| Clean SheetBenfica: Yes | 6/5 | |
| Anytime GoalscorerVangelis Pavlidis | 7/5 | |
| First GoalscorerVangelis Pavlidis | 15/4 | |
| To be BookedWilliam Carvalho | 4/7 | |
| Total Corners6 - 8 | 7/4 |
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View OfferBenfica Team Form and Stats
| Form | Results | Points Per Game |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | lwwdwwlwlw | 1.90 |
| Home | wwwlw | 2.40 |
| Away | ldwlw | 1.40 |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 80% | 40% |
| Average Goals Per Game | 2.80 | 3.40 | 2.20 |
| Scored | 1.80 | 2.60 | 1.00 |
| Conceded | 1.00 | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| BTTS | 50% | 40% | 60% |
| Clean Sheets | 30% | 40% | 20% |
| Failed to Score | 30% | 20% | 40% |
| Expected Goals | 2.01 | 2.33 | 1.68 |
| Expected Goals Against | 1.12 | 1.07 | 1.17 |
Porto Team Form and Stats
| Form | Results | Points Per Game |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | wdwwldwwwl | 2.00 |
| Home | wwdww | 2.60 |
| Away | wdlwl | 1.40 |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 80% | 40% |
| Average Goals Per Game | 2.20 | 2.80 | 1.60 |
| Scored | 1.50 | 2.20 | 0.80 |
| Conceded | 0.70 | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| BTTS | 50% | 60% | 40% |
| Clean Sheets | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Failed to Score | 10% | 0% | 20% |
| Expected Goals | 1.52 | 1.49 | 1.56 |
| Expected Goals Against | 1.02 | 0.88 | 1.17 |
Benfica vs Porto Head to Head Statistics (H2H)
Benfica (28%)
40 Matches
Porto (50%)
Benfica vs Porto Past Results
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