Casa Pia return home after a solid but frustrating 0–0 draw with Nacional, yet their defensive worries continue to grow. Anyhow, we are tempted to place our bets on draw as the two teams seem to be evenly matched at the moment. Both Fonte and Kiki remain injured, while key defender Duplexe Tchamba is a major doubt, leaving the hosts short of options at the back. Casa Pia average 1.40 goals conceded at home and have kept just 20% clean sheets overall. In attack, they are inconsistent, failing to score in 40% of their matches and producing an expected goals of only 1.02.
Arouca, meanwhile, head into Saturday's game with confidence following a thrilling 3–2 victory over Guimaraes, and importantly, they report no fresh injury issues. Their form (LWLWW) shows clear improvement, and they boast a consistent 1.40 points per game, regardless of venue. Arouca’s attack looks sharper too, scoring 1.20–1.40 goals per match and generating a solid expected goals of 1.40 overall. Defensively they remain vulnerable, but their away record—60% clean sheets—suggests they can manage tight matches.
The H2H record slightly favours Casa Pia, who have won four of the last nine meetings, though Arouca have lost only twice in that run. As only 22% of H2H meetings passed this line, Under 2.5 goals is our main betting tip, alongside Half-Time Draw and Draw.
This Portugal Primeira Liga match will be played on Saturday 14 February 2026 at 15:30.
What is our Casa Pia vs Arouca prediction?
Our prediction for this match: Casa Pia 1 - 1 Arouca
Casa Pia vs Arouca Betting Tips
- Over / Under 4.5 Goals: Under 4.5 Goals @ -1400 Odds
- Over / Under 3.5 Goals: Under 3.5 Goals @ -450 Odds
- Anytime Goalscorer: Cassiano Dias @ 175 Odds
- First Goalscorer: Cassiano Dias @ 500 Odds
- Asian Handicap: Casa Pia +0.5 @ -191 Odds
- European Handicap: Casa Pia +1 @ -188 Odds
- Shots on Target (Home): Over 2.5
- Shots on Target (Away): Over 2.5
- Shots on Target (Total): Over 4.5
- Total Corners: 9 - 11 @ 162 Odds
- Double Chance: 1X @ -188 Odds
- Draw No Bet: Casa Pia to Win @ -120 Odds
- Half Time/Full Time: X (Draw)/X (Draw) @ 375 Odds
- Clean Sheet: FC Arouca - No @ -250 Odds
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You can place your bets on Casa Pia vs Arouca at the following bookmakers:
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View OfferCasa Pia Team Form and Stats
| Form | Results | Points Per Game |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | lldwd | 1.00 |
| Home | dlddw | 1.20 |
| Away | lwlld | 0.80 |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Win % | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Average Goals Per Game | 2.50 | 2.80 | 2.20 |
| Scored | 1.00 | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| Conceded | 1.50 | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| BTTS | 60% | 80% | 40% |
| Clean Sheets | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Failed to Score | 40% | 20% | 60% |
| Expected Goals | 1.02 | 1.00 | 1.05 |
| Expected Goals Against | 1.58 | 1.63 | 1.53 |
Arouca Team Form and Stats
| Form | Results | Points Per Game |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | lwlww | 1.40 |
| Home | lwdlw | 1.40 |
| Away | ldlww | 1.40 |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Average Goals Per Game | 2.90 | 3.40 | 2.40 |
| Scored | 1.30 | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| Conceded | 1.60 | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| BTTS | 50% | 60% | 40% |
| Clean Sheets | 40% | 20% | 60% |
| Failed to Score | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Expected Goals | 1.40 | 1.38 | 1.43 |
| Expected Goals Against | 1.31 | 1.41 | 1.24 |
Casa Pia vs Arouca Head to Head Statistics (H2H)
Casa Pia (44%)
9 Matches
Arouca (22%)
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