Vitoria Guimaraes look to get back on course after a mixed run, and their 1.50 points per game at home suggests they remain difficult to beat at Estádio D. Afonso Henriques. Given Estrela's shaky defence, we predict a 2-0 home win. Defender Maga is suspended, though he is not a regular starter, meaning the core of the team remains intact. Guimaraes score 1.00 goal per home match and hold a solid x of 1.57, while conceding a manageable 1.33. However, their games often produce goals, averaging 2.33 per home fixture.
Estrela travel after a morale-boosting 1–0 win over Santa Clara, though midfielder Robinho is doubtful. Paulo Moreira, back from suspension, is expected to step in. Estrela’s away form remains a concern: just 0.80 points per game, a high 2.80 goals conceded, and a low expected goals of 0.62. Os Tricolores have failed to score in 40% of matches and kept 0% clean sheets away from home. Defensively frail and inconsistent in attack, they will need a near-perfect performance to trouble the hosts.
The H2H heavily favours Guimaraes, who have won 4 of the last 5 meetings, keeping 80% clean sheets in those clashes. Therefore, Home Win is our main betting tip, alongside Guimaraes to Score First and Under 2.5 goals (Estrela struggle up front on the road).
This Portugal Primeira Liga match will be played on Saturday 14 February 2026 at 18:00.
What is our Guimaraes vs Estrela prediction?
Our prediction for this match: Guimaraes 2 - 0 Estrela
Guimaraes vs Estrela Betting Tips
- Over / Under 4.5 Goals: Under 4.5 Goals @ -1400 Odds
- Over / Under 3.5 Goals: Under 3.5 Goals @ -400 Odds
- Anytime Goalscorer: Ejike Opara @ 125 Odds
- First Goalscorer: Ejike Opara @ 375 Odds
- Asian Handicap: Guimaraes -0.5 @ -154 Odds
- European Handicap: Guimaraes +1 @ -700 Odds
- Shots on Target (Home): Over 4.5
- Shots on Target (Away): Under 2.5
- Shots on Target (Total): Over 4.5
- Total Corners: 9 - 11 @ 162 Odds
- Double Chance: 12 @ -350 Odds
- Draw No Bet: Guimaraes to Win @ -450 Odds
- Half Time/Full Time: Guimaraes to Win/Guimaraes to Win @ 160 Odds
- Clean Sheet: Guimaraes - Yes @ 100 Odds
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View OfferGuimaraes Team Form and Stats
| Form | Results | Points Per Game |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | wllwl | 1.30 |
| Home | lwwlw | 1.50 |
| Away | dwll | 1.00 |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 50% | 25% |
| Average Goals Per Game | 2.80 | 2.33 | 3.50 |
| Scored | 1.20 | 1.00 | 1.50 |
| Conceded | 1.60 | 1.33 | 2.00 |
| BTTS | 60% | 50% | 75% |
| Clean Sheets | 20% | 17% | 25% |
| Failed to Score | 30% | 33% | 25% |
| Expected Goals | 1.52 | 1.57 | 1.44 |
| Expected Goals Against | 1.38 | 1.38 | 1.38 |
Estrela Team Form and Stats
| Form | Results | Points Per Game |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | dlldw | 1.20 |
| Home | wddlw | 1.60 |
| Away | llwld | 0.80 |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Win % | 30% | 40% | 20% |
| Average Goals Per Game | 3.50 | 3.20 | 3.80 |
| Scored | 1.20 | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| Conceded | 2.30 | 1.80 | 2.80 |
| BTTS | 50% | 40% | 60% |
| Clean Sheets | 20% | 40% | 0% |
| Failed to Score | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Expected Goals | 0.99 | 1.36 | 0.62 |
| Expected Goals Against | 1.73 | 1.53 | 1.93 |
Guimaraes vs Estrela Head to Head Statistics (H2H)
Guimaraes (80%)
5 Matches
Estrela (0%)
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