Guimaraes return home aiming to stabilise their form after a mixed run, but their underlying numbers at the Estadio D. Afonso Henriques remain encouraging. Therefore, we predict that they will defeated Nacional 1-0 on Friday evening. Os Conquistadores concede just 1.33 goals per match and keep clean sheets in 50% of their home fixtures. Overall, their defence stands out with 0.90 goals conceded per game and an impressive 60% clean-sheet rate, while their expected goals profile (1.49 for, 1.26 against) shows they usually control matches. Midfielder Beni is unavailable due to international duty.
Nacional head into their first game of the year with a far more chaotic form pattern, especially away from home where they concede 1.67 goals per match. Their matches tend to be open, averaging 3.20 total goals overall and producing BTTS in 80% of fixtures. Strikingly, they are yet to keep a clean sheet this season. Their away expected goals (1.58) suggests they can create chances, but defensive frailty remains a major concern. Forward Witi is absent as he represents Mozambique at AFCON 2025.
Considering Guimaraes' better defensive metrics and home advantage, we are tempted to bet on Home Win, alongside Under 3.5 and Under 2.5 goals as the hosts keep games controlled.
This Portugal Primeira Liga match will be played on Friday 2 January 2026 at 20:45.
What is our Guimaraes vs Nacional prediction?
Our prediction for this match: Guimaraes 1 - 0 Nacional
Guimaraes vs Nacional Betting Tips
- Correct Score: 1-0
- Both Teams To Score (BTTS): No
- Over / Under 2.5 Goals: Under 2.5 Goals
- Over / Under 1.5 Goals: Under 1.5 Goals
- Goalscorer: Nelson Oliveira @ 150 Odds
- Shots on Target (Home): Over 2.5
- Shots on Target (Away): Under 2.5
- Shots on Target (Total): Over 2.5
- Total Corners: 9 - 11 @ 160 Odds
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View OfferGuimaraes Team Form and Stats
| Form | Results | Points Per Game |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | dwlld | 1.70 |
| Home | wwdll | 1.17 |
| Away | wwwd | 2.50 |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 33% | 75% |
| Average Goals Per Game | 2.30 | 2.83 | 1.50 |
| Scored | 1.40 | 1.50 | 1.25 |
| Conceded | 0.90 | 1.33 | 0.25 |
| BTTS | 20% | 17% | 25% |
| Clean Sheets | 60% | 50% | 75% |
| Failed to Score | 40% | 50% | 25% |
| Expected Goals | 1.49 | 1.68 | 1.22 |
| Expected Goals Against | 1.26 | 1.29 | 1.21 |
Nacional Team Form and Stats
| Form | Results | Points Per Game |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | lllwd | 1.20 |
| Home | wllw | 1.50 |
| Away | ddlld | 1.00 |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Win % | 30% | 50% | 17% |
| Average Goals Per Game | 3.20 | 3.25 | 3.17 |
| Scored | 1.60 | 1.75 | 1.50 |
| Conceded | 1.60 | 1.50 | 1.67 |
| BTTS | 80% | 75% | 83% |
| Clean Sheets | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Failed to Score | 20% | 25% | 17% |
| Expected Goals | 1.42 | 1.17 | 1.58 |
| Expected Goals Against | 1.65 | 2.08 | 1.37 |
Guimaraes vs Nacional Head to Head Statistics (H2H)
Guimaraes (40%)
20 Matches
Nacional (35%)
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