Nacional return home after an impressive but unlucky 2-1 defeat to Sporting CP, a match where they competed far better than expected. Therefore, we predict that Os Alvinegros will record a 2-1 win over Casa Pia on Matchday 21. At home they’ve been strong, averaging 2.75 goals scored and 1.50 conceded, taking 1.75 points per game. However, the suspension of defender Ze Vítor weakens a back line that already concedes in 75% of home matches.
Casa Pia head into Sunday's game with renewed confidence after a stunning 2-1 victory over league leaders Porto, but they also lose a key defensive figure—David Sousa, a major disruption for a team that keeps 0% clean sheets away and concedes 2.00 goals per road match. Offensively, they remain inconsistent away from home (just 0.75 goals scored on average), though their expected goals numbers (1.05 away) suggest potential for slight improvement.
Nacional dominate the H2H with 5 wins in 10 meetings, and given their stronger home output plus Casa Pia’s defensive absences, Home Win should be considered. Additionally, Nacional Over 1.5 goals and Over 2.5 goals total bets boast big value as both sides average high goal totals.
This Portugal Primeira Liga match will be played on Sunday 8 February 2026 at 15:30.
What is our Nacional vs Casa Pia prediction?
Our prediction for this match: Nacional 2 - 1 Casa Pia
Nacional vs Casa Pia Betting Tips
- Over / Under 4.5 Goals: Under 4.5 Goals @ -1000 Odds
- Over / Under 3.5 Goals: Under 3.5 Goals @ -334 Odds
- Anytime Goalscorer: Jesus Ramirez @ 125 Odds
- First Goalscorer: Jesus Ramirez @ 400 Odds
- Asian Handicap: Nacional -0.5 @ -134 Odds
- Shots on Target (Home): Over 4.5
- Shots on Target (Away): Over 2.5
- Shots on Target (Total): Over 7.5
- Total Corners: 9 - 11 @ 160 Odds
- Double Chance: 12 @ -334 Odds
- Draw No Bet: Nacional to Win @ -350 Odds
Where Can You Place Bets on Nacional vs Casa Pia?
You can place your bets on Nacional vs Casa Pia at the following bookmakers:
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View OfferNacional Team Form and Stats
| Form | Results | Points Per Game |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | ldlwl | 0.80 |
| Home | lwdw | 1.75 |
| Away | ldlll | 0.17 |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Win % | 20% | 50% | 0% |
| Average Goals Per Game | 3.70 | 4.25 | 3.33 |
| Scored | 1.80 | 2.75 | 1.17 |
| Conceded | 1.90 | 1.50 | 2.17 |
| BTTS | 80% | 75% | 83% |
| Clean Sheets | 10% | 25% | 0% |
| Failed to Score | 10% | 0% | 17% |
| Expected Goals | 1.30 | 1.22 | 1.36 |
| Expected Goals Against | 1.83 | 2.21 | 1.58 |
Casa Pia Team Form and Stats
| Form | Results | Points Per Game |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | dlldw | 0.90 |
| Home | dlddw | 1.00 |
| Away | lwll | 0.75 |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Win % | 20% | 17% | 25% |
| Average Goals Per Game | 2.70 | 2.67 | 2.75 |
| Scored | 1.00 | 1.17 | 0.75 |
| Conceded | 1.70 | 1.50 | 2.00 |
| BTTS | 60% | 67% | 50% |
| Clean Sheets | 10% | 17% | 0% |
| Failed to Score | 40% | 33% | 50% |
| Expected Goals | 1.00 | 0.96 | 1.05 |
| Expected Goals Against | 1.52 | 1.57 | 1.45 |
Nacional vs Casa Pia Head to Head Statistics (H2H)
Nacional (50%)
10 Matches
Casa Pia (40%)
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