Weekly Portugal Primeira Liga Betting Tips
Below you’ll find our weekly Portugal Primeira Liga tips across the most popular football betting markets, including Correct Score, Both Teams to Score (BTTS), Over/Under 2.5 Goals, Total Shots on Target, and Match Result.
Portugal Primeira Liga Betting Tips
Portugal Primeira Liga Outrights Tips for 2025/2026 Season
Outright betting in the Portugal Primeira Liga focuses on long-term outcomes. The most followed outright markets for the Primeira Liga include To Win the League, To Be Relegated, and To Finish as Top Scorer. Bets in these markets reward careful evaluation of squad depth, transfer activity, and consistency across a demanding 34-match campaign.
Who will win the Portugal Primeira Liga this season?
Priced at 2/1 (33.3%) by most major bookmakers, Benfica are the leading contender to win the Primeira Liga in 2025/26, thanks to their blend of fresh signings and managerial pedigree — giving them a clear advantage.
Benfica’s summer recruitment highlights their intent to reclaim domestic supremacy in the Portugal Primeira Liga. The club signed Dodi Lukebakio from Sevilla in September 2025 in a deal worth around £17 million plus bonuses, making him one of the marquee additions of the window. Lukebakio’s pace and versatility strengthen Benfica’s forward line, while Richard Rios’s arrival from Palmeiras adds midfield balance between creativity and defensive stability. Manager José Mourinho brings proven experience in handling high expectations and competitive pressure. Mourinho’s leadership, combined with Benfica’s focused recruitment, positions the club as a leading contender for the 2025/26 Primeira Liga title.
Who is most likely to be relegated from the Portugal Primeira Liga this season?
In the 2025/26 Primeira Liga, Alverca and Tondela appear to be the two sides most at risk of relegation. Alverca face the challenge of inexperience at the top level and a lack of high-profile players, while Tondela suffer from a weak attack and persistent difficulties away from home.
More information about the 2 main candidates for relegation from the Portugal Primeira Liga follows below.
- Alverca. Back in the Primeira Liga after consecutive promotions, Alverca face an uphill battle to adapt to top-flight competition and avoid relegation from Primeira Liga. Only four players from their promotion-winning squad remain, and the newly appointed head coach has no previous experience managing in Portugal’s top division, raising concerns about Alverca’s stability and tactical readiness.
- Tondela. Tondela is at serious risk of relegation from Portugal Primeira due to persistent defensive issues, conceding a goal every 51 minutes and averaging 1.75 goals against per game. Their back line often loses structure late in matches, turning narrow contests into defeats and keeping them near the danger zone.
Who is most likely to finish as Top Scorer in the Portugal Primeira Liga this season?
Samuel “Samu” Omorodion Aghehowa from FC Porto looks set to challenge for the Primeira Liga top scorer title thanks to his blend of physical strength, agility, and proven goal-scoring record. In 2023/24 Aghehowa was Alavés’ top scorer in La Liga, scoring 8 goals in 34 appearances. These achievements underline his ability to deliver consistently at a high level. Samu’s dominance in aerial duels and his versatility in scoring with both feet make him a constant threat from open play and set pieces alike. His combination of athleticism and finishing pedigree makes him the likeliest candidate for the Primeira Liga’s top scorer title in 2025/26.
Portugal Primeira Liga Betting Stats and Data
To guide our Portugal Primeira Liga tips and betting advice, we track five years of statistical trends from Portugal’s top division. These datasets cover home wins, away wins, draws, goals per game, and BTTS rates. Primeira Liga shares several performance trends with La Liga (Primera División), particularly in the importance of home advantage and the influence of tactical discipline on goal averages. These long-term patterns ensure our Primeira Liga previews are grounded in reliable betting data rather than short-term swings in form.
Portugal Primeira Liga Stats (2025/2026)
| Team Type |
Average Goals Scored |
| Home Teams |
1.4 |
| Away Teams |
1.29 |
| Total (Combined) |
2.69 |
33.4 min/Goal
(369 Goals in 137 matches)
61% Clean Sheets
(83 times out of 137 matches)
45% Both Teams Scored
(62 times out of 137 matches)
| Outcome (Full-Time Result) |
% of Matches |
| Home Win |
36% |
| Draw |
26% |
| Away Win |
38% |
| Goals |
% of Matches Over |
| Over 0.5 |
94% |
| Over 1.5 |
77% |
| Over 2.5 |
53% |
| Over 3.5 |
28% |
| Over 4.5 |
9% |
| Goals |
% of Matches Under |
| Under 0.5 |
6% |
| Under 1.5 |
23% |
| Under 2.5 |
47% |
| Under 3.5 |
71% |
| Under 4.5 |
91% |
| Liga NOS Match Stats (2025/2026) |
| Shots Per Match |
24.38 |
| Shots / Match (Home) |
12.59 |
| Shots / Match (Away) |
11.79 |
| Fouls Per Match |
28.32 |
| Fouls / Match (Home) |
13.8 |
| Fouls / Match (Away) |
14.52 |
| Offsides Per Match |
3.21 |
| Players Participated |
522 |
Portugal Primeira Liga Regular Season
|
Team |
MP |
W |
D |
L |
GF |
GA |
GD |
Pts |
Last 5 |
| 1 |
Porto |
15 |
14 |
1 |
0 |
33 |
4 |
+29 |
43 |
WWWWW |
| 2 |
Sporting CP |
15 |
12 |
2 |
1 |
42 |
8 |
+34 |
38 |
WWDWW |
| 3 |
Benfica |
15 |
10 |
5 |
0 |
31 |
8 |
+23 |
35 |
DWDWW |
| 4 |
Gil Vicente |
15 |
7 |
5 |
3 |
19 |
9 |
+10 |
26 |
DLDDD |
| 5 |
Sporting Braga |
15 |
7 |
4 |
4 |
26 |
13 |
+13 |
25 |
WWWWL |
| 6 |
Famalicão |
16 |
6 |
5 |
5 |
20 |
13 |
+7 |
23 |
DLWLL |
| 7 |
Moreirense FC |
15 |
6 |
3 |
6 |
21 |
24 |
-3 |
21 |
LDDLD |
| 8 |
Vitória Guimarães |
15 |
6 |
3 |
6 |
16 |
21 |
-5 |
21 |
WWDWL |
| 9 |
GD Estoril Praia |
16 |
5 |
5 |
6 |
27 |
26 |
+1 |
20 |
LDLWW |
| 10 |
Estrela Amadora |
16 |
4 |
6 |
6 |
20 |
24 |
-4 |
18 |
LWLDW |
| 11 |
Rio Ave FC |
15 |
3 |
8 |
4 |
19 |
24 |
-5 |
17 |
DDWLD |
| 12 |
Alverca |
16 |
5 |
2 |
9 |
16 |
27 |
-11 |
17 |
WWLLL |
| 13 |
Santa Clara |
15 |
4 |
4 |
7 |
11 |
15 |
-4 |
16 |
LDWLD |
| 14 |
CD Nacional |
15 |
4 |
4 |
7 |
17 |
21 |
-4 |
16 |
DLLWD |
| 15 |
Casa Pia |
15 |
3 |
4 |
8 |
16 |
29 |
-13 |
13 |
DLLDW |
| 16 |
FC Arouca |
15 |
3 |
4 |
8 |
15 |
37 |
-22 |
13 |
LLLWD |
| 17 |
CD Tondela |
15 |
2 |
3 |
10 |
9 |
27 |
-18 |
9 |
LWLLL |
| 18 |
AVS |
15 |
0 |
4 |
11 |
11 |
39 |
-28 |
4 |
DLLLD |
Portugal Primeira Liga Results
| Date |
Match |
| 19/12/2025, 20:15 |
GD Estoril Praia |
1 - 0 |
Sporting Braga |
| 20/12/2025, 18:00 |
Gil Vicente |
2 - 2 |
Rio Ave FC |
| 20/12/2025, 20:30 |
Estrela Amadora |
0 - 0 |
Moreirense FC |
| 21/12/2025, 15:30 |
AVS |
2 - 2 |
CD Nacional |
| 21/12/2025, 18:00 |
CD Tondela |
1 - 2 |
Casa Pia |
| 21/12/2025, 20:30 |
Santa Clara |
0 - 0 |
FC Arouca |
| 22/12/2025, 18:45 |
Alverca |
0 - 3 |
Porto |
| 22/12/2025, 20:45 |
Benfica |
1 - 0 |
Famalicão |
| 23/12/2025, 20:45 |
Vitória Guimarães |
1 - 4 |
Sporting CP |
Portugal Primeira Liga Fixtures
| Date |
Match |
| 27/12/2025, 18:00 |
Famalicão |
2 - 3 |
Estrela Amadora |
| 27/12/2025, 20:30 |
GD Estoril Praia |
4 - 1 |
Alverca |
| 28/12/2025, 15:30 |
FC Arouca |
- |
Gil Vicente |
| 28/12/2025, 15:30 |
Casa Pia |
- |
Vitória Guimarães |
| 28/12/2025, 18:00 |
Sporting Braga |
- |
Benfica |
| 28/12/2025, 20:30 |
Sporting CP |
- |
Rio Ave FC |
| 29/12/2025, 20:15 |
Porto |
- |
AVS |
| 11/01/2026, 15:30 |
CD Nacional |
- |
Santa Clara |
| 11/01/2026, 18:00 |
Moreirense FC |
- |
CD Tondela |
What are Portugal Primeira Liga Predictions?
Portugal Primeira Liga predictions are expert assessments of likely outcomes across the country’s top league. Our Primeira Liga predictions extend to outright markets such as the title race and relegation fight, as well as weekly bets like match winners and total goals. Using statistical models and recent form, our football prediction team helps give Primeira Liga punters a sharper edge when betting across the season.
How are Portugal Primeira Liga Predictions determined?
Our analysts create accurate Portugal Primeira Liga predictions through a structured approach that combines statistical analysis, tactical insight, and betting market evaluation, designed for the particular dynamics of Portuguese football.
The 3 main steps behind our Portugal Primeira Liga forecasts are as follows.
- Assessing form and underlying data
- Weighing squad availability
- Comparing analysis with betting markets
- Assessing form and underlying data. The first step in shaping accurate Portugal Primeira Liga predictions is analysing momentum and advanced metrics, including expected goals (xG), chance creation, and defensive records. This assessment allows our Primeira Liga predictions to reflect underlying team strength rather than surface-level results.
- Weighing squad availability. A second crucial step in shaping bankable Primeira Liga predictions is linking player availability to tactical impact. Understanding how injuries, suspensions, or transfers shift tactical systems helps clarify which outcomes are realistically likely, making our Primeira Liga predictions more accurate.
- Comparing analysis with betting markets. The final step in producing expert Portugal Primeira Liga predictions is to measure insights against bookmaker odds. Translating prices into implied probabilities makes it possible to identify mismatches between market perception and on-field reality, making our Primeira Liga predictions more accurate.
When are Portugal Primeira Liga Predictions released?
Primeira Liga predictions are released twice a week, every Tuesday at 12:30 AM London Time and again on midweek matchdays at 12:30 AM London Time, following the completion of the previous round. This schedule ensures that every forecast is based on the latest results, team news, and thorough expert analysis.
What are the most appealing Betting Markets to bet on for the Portugal Primeira Liga?
The three most appealing betting markets in the Portugal Primeira Liga are Home Wins, Over 1.5 Goals, and Clean Sheets. These markets stand out because they match the league’s core statistical patterns, which are a stable home advantage, a strong likelihood of matches producing at least two goals, and frequent clean sheets from leading clubs.
More detail on the 3 most appealing markets to bet on for the Portugal Primeira League is given below.
- Home Wins. Home advantage is a consistent factor in Portugal. Across the last five seasons, home wins have landed between 40% and 49%. By contrast, draws have ranged from 18% to 28% and away wins from 31% to 33%.
- Over 1.5 Goals. Over 1.5 Goals is the most reliable goals market in the Primeira Liga. It has landed in 66% to 77% of matches over the last five years. With goals per game averaging between 2.42 and 2.87, low-scoring outcomes in the Primeira Liga are relatively rare.
- Clean Sheets. Clean sheets have occurred in 53% to 64% of matches across the last five campaigns, which is high compared to many European leagues. For example, Sporting Clube de Portugal recorded 53% clean sheets in 2021/22, while SL Benfica achieved 62% in 2022/23, making the Clean Sheet market especially valuable when betting on Portugal’s leading teams.
The table below summarises the key Primeira League outcomes from the past five seasons across these three markets.
| Season |
Home Wins |
Draws |
Away Wins |
Over 1.5 Goals |
Clean Sheets |
Avg. Goals / Match |
| 2020/21 |
42% |
25% |
33% |
72% |
64% |
2.42 |
| 2021/22 |
40% |
28% |
32% |
77% |
53% |
2.64 |
| 2022/23 |
49% |
18% |
33% |
66% |
63% |
2.49 |
| 2023/24 |
43% |
25% |
32% |
77% |
53% |
2.87 |
| 2024/25 |
43% |
26% |
31% |
74% |
57% |
2.57 |
Portugal Primeira Liga Season Guide
The 2025–26 Portugal Primeira Liga is the 92nd edition of the country’s top division. The Primeira Liga features 18 clubs, with newly promoted Alverca and Tondela joining from Liga Portugal 2, while Farense and Boavista were relegated. Sporting CP enter as two-time defending champions after securing their 21st league crown in 2024/25.
What Is the Format of the Portugal Primeira Liga 2025/26 Season?
The Primeira Liga has a standard double round-robin format, with each of the 18 teams playing 34 matches. The top four sides qualify for European tournaments, while the bottom two are relegated automatically to Liga Portugal 2. The 16th-placed club faces the third-placed side from Liga Portugal 2 in a two-legged relegation playoff to decide who plays in the top flight the following year.
What are the Start & End Dates for the Portugal Primeira Liga 2025/26?
The Portugal Primeira Liga 2025/26 season began on 9 August 2025 and will conclude on 17 May 2026, spanning just over nine months. Liga fixtures are played primarily on weekends, with occasional midweek rounds, while the calendar pauses for FIFA international breaks, the Taça de Portugal, and European competition commitments.
How are Portugal Primeira Liga Fixtures built up?
Portugal Primeira Liga fixtures are built up by Liga Portugal in coordination with clubs, broadcasters, and local authorities. The Liga schedule aims to balance fairness by preventing long runs of consecutive home or away matches. High-profile derbies such as Benfica vs Sporting CP or Porto vs Benfica are arranged in consultation with security services to manage crowd and travel logistics. Adjustments are made to accommodate clubs competing in UEFA (Union of European Football Associations) competitions and domestic cup ties.
Other Leagues We Cover
Stay on top of Europe’s biggest football competitions with our expert predictions for other leagues and tournaments including the ones below.
- La Liga Predictions. Our La Liga predictions explore Spain’s top division with analysis of leading clubs, tactical styles, and season trends.
- Serie A Predictions. Serie A forecasts follow Italy’s premier competition with detailed insights into key fixtures and player form.
- Premier League Predictions. Our Premier League coverage examines England’s elite teams, title races, and consistent performers.
- Bundesliga Predictions. Bundesliga forecasts focus on Germany’s most dynamic clubs, highlighting attacking football and league statistics.
- Portugal League Cup Predictions. Our Portugal League Cup predictions cover the nation’s knockout tournament, analysing fixtures, form, and finalists.
