Portugal Primeira Liga Predictions

Casa Pia

Casa Pia

Prediction:
1-1

Match Time & Date:

3 March 2024

15:30

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Gil Vicente

Gil Vicente

Estadio Municipal de Rio Maior will host Sunday’s football game between Casa Pia and Gil Vicente, the two teams who are level on points in the Primeira Liga standings. Casa Pia are eyeing their third consecutive league win and we predict that they will rely on their rock-solid defence in the round 24 clash. A man to keep an eye on in the home team will be Brazil winger Pab... Read More...

This match will be played on 3 March 2024 at 15:30

Braga

Braga

Prediction:
3-0

Match Time & Date:

2 March 2024

20:30

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Estrela

Estrela

Braga will be aiming to extend their winning run to four games in all competitions when they face Estrela on Matchday 24. The Reds have been scoring goals for fun of late and they are likely to stick to their attacking style of play. A man to keep an eye on in the home team will be DR Congo forward Simon Banza, who has found his goal-scoring touch of late.

As both Al... Read More...

This match will be played on 2 March 2024 at 20:30

Estoril

Estoril

Prediction:
1-1

Match Time & Date:

2 March 2024

18:00

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Guimaraes

Guimaraes

After failing to win the previous three league matches, Estoril will look to get back on course when they take on Vitoria Guimaraes on Saturday evening. Os Canarinhos have been involved in some high-scoring games of late and we are positive that they will stick to their attacking style of play against Alvaro Pacheco’s troops. Alejandro Marques is pushing for a start after ... Read More...

This match will be played on 2 March 2024 at 18:00

Moreirense

Moreirense

Prediction:
2-1

Match Time & Date:

2 March 2024

15:30

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Rio Ave

Rio Ave

Moreirense will look to build on a hard-fought 1-0 win over Farense when they take on Rio Ave on Saturday afternoon. Os Verdes e Brancos are determined to represent Portugal in European competitions next season and we are positive that they will go all guns blazing at Rio Ave this weekend. Barring any fresh injury worries, Tiago Aguiar is unlikely to make changes to the team... Read More...

This match will be played on 2 March 2024 at 15:30

Chaves

Chaves

Prediction:
0-1

Match Time & Date:

1 March 2024

20:15

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Arouca

Arouca

Estadio Municipal de Chaves will host the Primeira Liga round 24 opener between Chaves and Arouca, the two teams who sit in the opposite halves of the table. Os Valentes have been having their ups and downs of late, with the team losing to Moreirense, beating Chaves, while sharing the spoils with Estrela. There are no fresh injury worries in the home team ahead of the visit ... Read More...

This match will be played on 1 March 2024 at 20:15

Boavista

Boavista

Prediction:
1-2

Match Time & Date:

26 February 2024

20:15

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Braga

Braga

Boavista play host to Braga at their Estadio do Bessa Seculo XXI in the closing match of the Primeira Liga round 23. The Black and Whites aim to recover from a 2-1 loss to Chaves, but they face yet another difficult task against the Reds. Goalkeeper Cesar remains in the recovery room, while Nigeria defender Chidozie Awaziem should be fit for the match.

Braga, on the ... Read More...

This match will be played on 26 February 2024 at 20:15

Rio Ave

Rio Ave

Prediction:
0-2

Match Time & Date:

25 February 2024

20:30

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Sporting

Sporting

Sunday’s football game at Estadio do Rio Ave pits together Rio Ave and Sporting, the two teams with entirely different ambitions for the remainder of the season. Rio Ave are determined to secure yet another Primeira Liga survival and a win over Sporting should see them escape the relegation zone. There are no fresh injury worries in the home team ahead of the round 23 clas... Read More...

This match will be played on 25 February 2024 at 20:30

Gil Vicente

Gil Vicente

Prediction:
1-2

Match Time & Date:

25 February 2024

18:00

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Porto

Porto

Buoyed by the Champions League win over Arsenal, Porto will be aiming to keep their Primeira Liga title hopes alive when they face Gil Vicente at Estadio Cidade de Barcelos. The Dragons are seven points behind league leaders Benfica, meaning that this has to go down as yet another must-win game for Sergio Conceicao’s troops. Wendell is a major doubt after limping off with ... Read More...

This match will be played on 25 February 2024 at 18:00

Benfica

Benfica

Prediction:
2-0

Match Time & Date:

25 February 2024

18:00

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Portimonense

Portimonense

After rolling over Vizela 6-1 at the weekend, Benfica will be aiming to retain top position when they take on Portimonense on Matchday 23. The Eagles are leading the chase for the Primeira Liga trophy, but it has to be noted that Sporting CP are still breathing down their neck with one game in hand. Angel Di Maria is widely expected to return to the starting XI, while Juan B... Read More...

This match will be played on 25 February 2024 at 18:00

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Bojan Jovanovic • Football expert
17 October 2025 • 10:44 UTC • 1 min read
Portugal Primeira Liga Predictions

Weekly Portugal Primeira Liga Betting Tips

Below you’ll find our weekly Portugal Primeira Liga tips across the most popular football betting markets, including Correct Score, Both Teams to Score (BTTS), Over/Under 2.5 Goals, Total Shots on Target, and Match Result.

Portugal Primeira Liga Betting Tips

MatchBetting tips
AlvercaAlvercaGil VicenteGil Vicente24/10/2025, 20:15
  • Correct Score: 1-0
  • BTTS: No
  • Over 1.5 Goals: No
  • Total SoT: Over 2.5
  • Match Result: Home Win
Santa ClaraSanta ClaraAFSAFS25/10/2025, 18:00
  • Correct Score: 1-0
  • BTTS: No
  • Over 1.5 Goals: No
  • Total SoT: Over 2.5
  • Match Result: Home Win
EstrelaEstrelaRio AveRio Ave25/10/2025, 20:30
  • Correct Score: 1-1
  • BTTS: Yes
  • Over 1.5 Goals: Yes
  • Total SoT: Over 4.5
  • Match Result: Draw
BenficaBenficaAroucaArouca25/10/2025, 20:30
  • Correct Score: 3-0
  • BTTS: No
  • Over 1.5 Goals: Yes
  • Total SoT: Over 7.5
  • Match Result: Home Win
FamalicaoFamalicaoGuimaraesGuimaraes26/10/2025, 15:30
  • Correct Score: 1-1
  • BTTS: Yes
  • Over 1.5 Goals: Yes
  • Total SoT: Over 4.5
  • Match Result: Draw
EstorilEstorilNacionalNacional26/10/2025, 15:30
  • Correct Score: 1-1
  • BTTS: Yes
  • Over 1.5 Goals: Yes
  • Total SoT: Over 4.5
  • Match Result: Draw
TondelaTondelaSportingSporting26/10/2025, 18:00
  • Correct Score: 0-2
  • BTTS: No
  • Over 1.5 Goals: Yes
  • Total SoT: Over 4.5
  • Match Result: Away Win
BragaBragaCasa PiaCasa Pia26/10/2025, 20:30
  • Correct Score: 2-0
  • BTTS: No
  • Over 1.5 Goals: Yes
  • Total SoT: Over 4.5
  • Match Result: Home Win
MoreirenseMoreirensePortoPorto27/10/2025, 20:15
  • Correct Score: 0-2
  • BTTS: No
  • Over 1.5 Goals: Yes
  • Total SoT: Over 4.5
  • Match Result: Away Win

Portugal Primeira Liga Outrights Tips for 2025/2026 Season

Outright betting in the Portugal Primeira Liga focuses on long-term outcomes. The most followed outright markets for the Primeira Liga include To Win the League, To Be Relegated, and To Finish as Top Scorer. Bets in these markets reward careful evaluation of squad depth, transfer activity, and consistency across a demanding 34-match campaign.

Portugal Primeira Liga Outrights Tips for 2025_2026 Season

Who will win the Portugal Primeira Liga this season?

Priced at 2/1 (33.3%) by most major bookmakers, Benfica are the leading contender to win the Primeira Liga in 2025/26, thanks to their blend of fresh signings and managerial pedigree — giving them a clear advantage.

Benfica’s summer recruitment highlights their intent to reclaim domestic supremacy in the Portugal Primeira Liga. The club signed Dodi Lukebakio from Sevilla in September 2025 in a deal worth around £17 million plus bonuses, making him one of the marquee additions of the window. Lukebakio’s pace and versatility strengthen Benfica’s forward line, while Richard Rios’s arrival from Palmeiras adds midfield balance between creativity and defensive stability. Manager José Mourinho brings proven experience in handling high expectations and competitive pressure. Mourinho’s leadership, combined with Benfica’s focused recruitment, positions the club as a leading contender for the 2025/26 Primeira Liga title.

Who is most likely to be relegated from the Portugal Primeira Liga this season?

In the 2025/26 Primeira Liga, Alverca and Tondela appear to be the two sides most at risk of relegation. Alverca face the challenge of inexperience at the top level and a lack of high-profile players, while Tondela suffer from a weak attack and persistent difficulties away from home.

More information about the 2 main candidates for relegation from the Portugal Primeira Liga follows below.

  • Alverca. Back in the Primeira Liga after consecutive promotions, Alverca face an uphill battle to adapt to top-flight competition and avoid relegation from Primeira Liga. Only four players from their promotion-winning squad remain, and the newly appointed head coach has no previous experience managing in Portugal’s top division, raising concerns about Alverca’s stability and tactical readiness.
  • Tondela. Tondela is at serious risk of relegation from Portugal Primeira due to persistent defensive issues, conceding a goal every 51 minutes and averaging 1.75 goals against per game. Their back line often loses structure late in matches, turning narrow contests into defeats and keeping them near the danger zone.

Who is most likely to finish as Top Scorer in the Portugal Primeira Liga this season?

Samuel “Samu” Omorodion Aghehowa from FC Porto looks set to challenge for the Primeira Liga top scorer title thanks to his blend of physical strength, agility, and proven goal-scoring record. In 2023/24 Aghehowa was Alavés’ top scorer in La Liga, scoring 8 goals in 34 appearances. These achievements underline his ability to deliver consistently at a high level. Samu’s dominance in aerial duels and his versatility in scoring with both feet make him a constant threat from open play and set pieces alike. His combination of athleticism and finishing pedigree makes him the likeliest candidate for the Primeira Liga’s top scorer title in 2025/26.

Portugal Primeira Liga Betting Stats and Data

To guide our Portugal Primeira Liga tips and betting advice, we track five years of statistical trends from Portugal’s top division. These datasets cover home wins, away wins, draws, goals per game, and BTTS rates. Primeira Liga shares several performance trends with La Liga (Primera División), particularly in the importance of home advantage and the influence of tactical discipline on goal averages. These long-term patterns ensure our Primeira Liga previews are grounded in reliable betting data rather than short-term swings in form.

Portugal Primeira Liga Stats (2025/2026)

Team Type Average Goals Scored
Home Teams 1.35
Away Teams 1.19
Total (Combined) 2.54
35.4 min/Goal (183 Goals in 72 matches)
63% Clean Sheets (45 times out of 72 matches)
44% Both Teams Scored (32 times out of 72 matches)
Outcome (Full-Time Result) % of Matches
Home Win 36%
Draw 28%
Away Win 36%
Goals % of Matches Over
Over 0.5 93%
Over 1.5 79%
Over 2.5 50%
Over 3.5 22%
Over 4.5 7%
Goals % of Matches Under
Under 0.5 7%
Under 1.5 21%
Under 2.5 50%
Under 3.5 78%
Under 4.5 93%
Liga NOS Match Stats (2025/2026)
Shots Per Match 24.46
Shots / Match (Home) 12.82
Shots / Match (Away) 11.64
Fouls Per Match 28.65
Fouls / Match (Home) 14.17
Fouls / Match (Away) 14.49
Offsides Per Match 3.46
Players Participated 483

Portugal Primeira Liga Regular Season

Team MP W D L GF GA GD Pts Last 5
1 Porto 8 7 1 0 19 1 +18 22 WWWWD
2 Sporting CP 8 6 1 1 20 5 +15 19 LWWWD
3 Benfica 8 5 3 0 13 4 +9 18 DWDWD
4 Gil Vicente 8 5 1 2 10 4 +6 16 WWWLW
5 Moreirense FC 8 5 0 3 12 11 +1 15 LWLWL
6 Famalicão 8 3 4 1 8 4 +4 13 WLDDD
7 Vitória Guimarães 8 3 2 3 9 12 -3 11 DWDLW
8 Sporting Braga 8 2 4 2 12 8 +4 10 DLDLD
9 Alverca 8 3 1 4 11 12 -1 10 LWLWW
10 CD Nacional 8 3 1 4 9 12 -3 10 WLLWW
11 FC Arouca 8 2 3 3 10 19 -9 9 DLWLD
12 Rio Ave FC 8 1 5 2 11 13 -2 8 LLDDW
13 Santa Clara 8 2 2 4 6 10 -4 8 WDWLL
14 Casa Pia 8 2 2 4 8 13 -5 8 LWDLD
15 Estrela Amadora 8 1 4 3 6 8 -2 7 DLDWL
16 GD Estoril Praia 8 1 3 4 10 13 -3 6 LWLLD
17 CD Tondela 8 1 2 5 4 14 -10 5 DLDWL
18 AVS 8 0 1 7 5 20 -15 1 LLLLL

Portugal Primeira Liga Results

Date Match
03/10/2025, 19:15 Casa Pia 2 - 2 GD Estoril Praia
04/10/2025, 14:30 Gil Vicente 2 - 0 Estrela Amadora
04/10/2025, 14:30 CD Nacional 3 - 2 Moreirense FC
04/10/2025, 17:00 AVS 1 - 3 Alverca
04/10/2025, 19:30 Vitória Guimarães 2 - 1 Santa Clara
05/10/2025, 14:30 FC Arouca 1 - 1 Famalicão
05/10/2025, 16:30 Rio Ave FC 3 - 0 CD Tondela
05/10/2025, 18:15 Sporting CP 1 - 1 Sporting Braga
05/10/2025, 20:15 Porto 0 - 0 Benfica

Portugal Primeira Liga Fixtures

Date Match
24/10/2025, 19:15 Alverca - Gil Vicente
25/10/2025, 17:00 Santa Clara - AVS
25/10/2025, 19:30 Estrela Amadora - Rio Ave FC
25/10/2025, 19:30 Benfica - FC Arouca
26/10/2025, 15:30 Famalicão - Vitória Guimarães
26/10/2025, 15:30 GD Estoril Praia - CD Nacional
26/10/2025, 18:00 CD Tondela - Sporting CP
26/10/2025, 20:30 Sporting Braga - Casa Pia
27/10/2025, 20:15 Moreirense FC - Porto

What are Portugal Primeira Liga Predictions?

Portugal Primeira Liga predictions are expert assessments of likely outcomes across the country’s top league. Our Primeira Liga predictions extend to outright markets such as the title race and relegation fight, as well as weekly bets like match winners and total goals. Using statistical models and recent form, our football prediction team helps give Primeira Liga punters a sharper edge when betting across the season.

How are Portugal Primeira Liga Predictions determined?

Our analysts create accurate Portugal Primeira Liga predictions through a structured approach that combines statistical analysis, tactical insight, and betting market evaluation, designed for the particular dynamics of Portuguese football.

The 3 main steps behind our Portugal Primeira Liga forecasts are as follows.

  • Assessing form and underlying data
  • Weighing squad availability
  • Comparing analysis with betting markets
  1. Assessing form and underlying data. The first step in shaping accurate Portugal Primeira Liga predictions is analysing momentum and advanced metrics, including expected goals (xG), chance creation, and defensive records. This assessment allows our Primeira Liga predictions to reflect underlying team strength rather than surface-level results.
  2. Weighing squad availability. A second crucial step in shaping bankable Primeira Liga predictions is linking player availability to tactical impact. Understanding how injuries, suspensions, or transfers shift tactical systems helps clarify which outcomes are realistically likely, making our Primeira Liga predictions more accurate.
  3. Comparing analysis with betting markets. The final step in producing expert Portugal Primeira Liga predictions is to measure insights against bookmaker odds. Translating prices into implied probabilities makes it possible to identify mismatches between market perception and on-field reality, making our Primeira Liga predictions more accurate.

When are Portugal Primeira Liga Predictions released?

Primeira Liga predictions are released twice a week, every Tuesday at 12:30 AM London Time and again on midweek matchdays at 12:30 AM London Time, following the completion of the previous round. This schedule ensures that every forecast is based on the latest results, team news, and thorough expert analysis.

What are the most appealing Betting Markets to bet on for the Portugal Primeira Liga?

The three most appealing betting markets in the Portugal Primeira Liga are Home Wins, Over 1.5 Goals, and Clean Sheets. These markets stand out because they match the league’s core statistical patterns, which are a stable home advantage, a strong likelihood of matches producing at least two goals, and frequent clean sheets from leading clubs.

What are the most appealing Betting Markets to bet on for the Portugal Primeira Liga

More detail on the 3 most appealing markets to bet on for the Portugal Primeira League is given below.

  • Home Wins. Home advantage is a consistent factor in Portugal. Across the last five seasons, home wins have landed between 40% and 49%. By contrast, draws have ranged from 18% to 28% and away wins from 31% to 33%.
  • Over 1.5 Goals. Over 1.5 Goals is the most reliable goals market in the Primeira Liga. It has landed in 66% to 77% of matches over the last five years. With goals per game averaging between 2.42 and 2.87, low-scoring outcomes in the Primeira Liga are relatively rare.
  • Clean Sheets. Clean sheets have occurred in 53% to 64% of matches across the last five campaigns, which is high compared to many European leagues. For example, Sporting Clube de Portugal recorded 53% clean sheets in 2021/22, while SL Benfica achieved 62% in 2022/23, making the Clean Sheet market especially valuable when betting on Portugal’s leading teams.

The table below summarises the key Primeira League outcomes from the past five seasons across these three markets.

Season Home Wins Draws Away Wins Over 1.5 Goals Clean Sheets Avg. Goals / Match
2020/21 42% 25% 33% 72% 64% 2.42
2021/22 40% 28% 32% 77% 53% 2.64
2022/23 49% 18% 33% 66% 63% 2.49
2023/24 43% 25% 32% 77% 53% 2.87
2024/25 43% 26% 31% 74% 57% 2.57

Portugal Primeira Liga Season Guide

The 2025–26 Portugal Primeira Liga is the 92nd edition of the country’s top division. The Primeira Liga features 18 clubs, with newly promoted Alverca and Tondela joining from Liga Portugal 2, while Farense and Boavista were relegated. Sporting CP enter as two-time defending champions after securing their 21st league crown in 2024/25.

What Is the Format of the Portugal Primeira Liga 2025/26 Season?

The Primeira Liga has a standard double round-robin format, with each of the 18 teams playing 34 matches. The top four sides qualify for European tournaments, while the bottom two are relegated automatically to Liga Portugal 2. The 16th-placed club faces the third-placed side from Liga Portugal 2 in a two-legged relegation playoff to decide who plays in the top flight the following year.

What are the Start & End Dates for the Portugal Primeira Liga 2025/26?

The Portugal Primeira Liga 2025/26 season began on 9 August 2025 and will conclude on 17 May 2026, spanning just over nine months. Liga fixtures are played primarily on weekends, with occasional midweek rounds, while the calendar pauses for FIFA international breaks, the Taça de Portugal, and European competition commitments.

How are Portugal Primeira Liga Fixtures built up?

Portugal Primeira Liga fixtures are built up by Liga Portugal in coordination with clubs, broadcasters, and local authorities. The Liga schedule aims to balance fairness by preventing long runs of consecutive home or away matches. High-profile derbies such as Benfica vs Sporting CP or Porto vs Benfica are arranged in consultation with security services to manage crowd and travel logistics. Adjustments are made to accommodate clubs competing in UEFA (Union of European Football Associations) competitions and domestic cup ties.

Other Leagues We Cover

Stay on top of Europe’s biggest football competitions with our expert predictions for other leagues and tournaments including the ones below.

  • La Liga Predictions. Our La Liga predictions explore Spain’s top division with analysis of leading clubs, tactical styles, and season trends.
  • Serie A Predictions. Serie A forecasts follow Italy’s premier competition with detailed insights into key fixtures and player form.
  • Premier League Predictions. Our Premier League coverage examines England’s elite teams, title races, and consistent performers.
  • Bundesliga Predictions. Bundesliga forecasts focus on Germany’s most dynamic clubs, highlighting attacking football and league statistics.
  • Portugal League Cup Predictions. Our Portugal League Cup predictions cover the nation’s knockout tournament, analysing fixtures, form, and finalists.
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