Aston Villa return to Villa Park aiming to respond after a 1-1 draw with Bournemouth, but Unai Emery faces midfield problems with Tielemans, McGinn and Garcia all sidelined. Anyhow, we predict a 2-1 home win as Brighton suit the Villans. Villa’s numbers at home remain solid, averaging 2.75 total goals per home match and scoring 1.50 goals per game, though defensive consistency is lacking with 0% clean sheets in their last four at Villa Park. Their expected goals metrics (xG 2.19 at home) suggest they still create enough to trouble any opponent.
Brighton, on the other hand, suffered a narrow 1-0 loss to Crystal Palace last weekend but arrive with no fresh injury worries, a rarity for Fabian Hurzeler's squad this season. However, away results remain inconsistent: just 1.00 point per game and 1.40 goals scored, while conceding 1.60. Matches involving the Seagulls on the road tend to open up, with 100% BTTS and an average of 3.00 goals per away game.
Villa have historically dominated this matchup, winning 9 of 17 H2H meetings, and with home advantage, they enter as slight favourites. As both sides average above 2.20 goals per game, we are tempted to bet on Over 2.5 goals, alongside Aston Villa Draw no Bet and BTTS (71% H2H).
This Premier League match will be played on Wednesday 11 February 2026 at 19:30.
What is our Aston Villa vs Brighton prediction?
Our prediction for this match: Aston Villa 2 - 1 Brighton
Aston Villa vs Brighton Betting Tips
- Over / Under 4.5 Goals: Under 4.5 Goals @ -500 Odds
- Over / Under 3.5 Goals: Under 3.5 Goals @ -200 Odds
- Anytime Goalscorer: Ollie Watkins @ 125 Odds
- First Goalscorer: Ollie Watkins @ 450 Odds
- To be Booked: Carlos Baleba @ 160 Odds
- Asian Handicap: Aston Villa 0 @ -200 Odds
- European Handicap: Aston Villa +1 @ -334 Odds
- Shots on Target (Home): Over 4.5
- Shots on Target (Away): Over 2.5
- Shots on Target (Total): Over 7.5
- Total Corners: 9 - 11 @ 160 Odds
- Double Chance: 1X @ -334 Odds
- Draw No Bet: Aston Villa to Win @ -200 Odds
Where Can You Place Bets on Aston Villa vs Brighton?
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View OfferAston Villa Team Form and Stats
| Form | Results | Points Per Game |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | wwwld | 1.70 |
| Home | wlwl | 1.50 |
| Away | dwwwd | 1.83 |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Average Goals Per Game | 2.40 | 2.75 | 2.17 |
| Scored | 1.30 | 1.50 | 1.17 |
| Conceded | 1.10 | 1.25 | 1.00 |
| BTTS | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Clean Sheets | 30% | 0% | 50% |
| Failed to Score | 30% | 50% | 17% |
| Expected Goals | 1.76 | 2.19 | 1.47 |
| Expected Goals Against | 1.56 | 1.15 | 1.82 |
Brighton Team Form and Stats
| Form | Results | Points Per Game |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | wdldl | 1.10 |
| Home | dwddl | 1.20 |
| Away | lddwl | 1.00 |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Win % | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Average Goals Per Game | 2.20 | 1.40 | 3.00 |
| Scored | 1.10 | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| Conceded | 1.10 | 0.60 | 1.60 |
| BTTS | 70% | 40% | 100% |
| Clean Sheets | 20% | 40% | 0% |
| Failed to Score | 20% | 40% | 0% |
| Expected Goals | 1.39 | 1.49 | 1.30 |
| Expected Goals Against | 1.51 | 1.12 | 1.90 |
Aston Villa vs Brighton Head to Head Statistics (H2H)
Aston Villa (53%)
17 Matches
Brighton (12%)
Bournemouth
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