What is our Aston Villa vs Leeds United prediction?
Aston Villa
2 - 1
Leeds United
Our prediction for this match: Aston Villa 2 - 1 Leeds United
Aston Villa vs Leeds United Preview
Aston Villa host Leeds United in Premier League round 27 looking to recover from a 3-1 FA Cup defeat to Newcastle. Given Villa's excellent home record, we predict a 2-1 home win. The Villans will be without backup goalkeeper Marco Bizot, but it is unlikely to affect their starting XI. The Villa Park outfit have averaged 1.70 points per game this season, with home PPG at 1.20, scoring 1.00 goal per home match while conceding 1.40. Their expected goals of 1.88 at home shows they create decent scoring opportunities, and BTTS has occurred in 40% of their home games, reflecting a balanced approach.
Leeds United, on the other hand, travel to Birmingham with forward Noah Okafor doubtful after a minor FA Cup injury. Leeds’ form is mixed, collecting 1.40 PPG overall and 1.17 PPG away, scoring 1.67 goals per away game while conceding 1.50, with BTTS in 83% of away fixtures. Their expected goals away of 1.46 suggests potential to breach Villa’s defence.
Given Villa’s home advantage and Leeds’ inconsistency, we believe that there is big value in betting on Unai Emery's troops, alongside BTTS and Over 2.5 goals (Villa 40%, Leeds 83% BTTS away).
This Premier League match will be played on Saturday, 21 February 2026 at 15:00.
- Competition
- Premier League
- Kick-off
- Sat 21 Feb, 15:00UK time
Aston Villa vs Leeds United Betting Tips
| Betting Tip | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Correct ScoreAston Villa 2-1 Leeds United | 17/2 | |
| Double Chance12 | 2/7 | |
| Draw No BetAston Villa | 1/3 | |
| Half Time/Full TimeAston Villa / Aston Villa | 15/8 | |
| Asian HandicapAston Villa -0.5 | 31/40 | |
| European HandicapAston Villa +1 | 1/5 | |
| Both Teams to ScoreYes | 4/6 | |
| Over / Under 1.5 GoalsOver 1.5 Goals | 2/9 | |
| Over / Under 2.5 GoalsOver 2.5 Goals | 8/11 | |
| Over / Under 3.5 GoalsUnder 3.5 Goals | 4/9 | |
| Over / Under 4.5 GoalsUnder 4.5 Goals | 1/6 | |
| Clean SheetAston Villa: No | 4/9 | |
| Anytime GoalscorerOllie Watkins | 13/10 | |
| First GoalscorerOllie Watkins | 9/2 | |
| To be BookedJayden Bogle | 9/4 | |
| Total Corners9 - 11 | 8/5 |
Where Can You Place Bets on Aston Villa vs Leeds United?
You can place your bets on Aston Villa vs Leeds United at the following bookmakers:
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18+ New UK+ROI Customers only. Certain deposit methods & bet types excl. Min first £/€5 bet within 14 days of account reg at min odds 1/2 to get 4x £/€5 free bets. Free bets available to use on selected sportsbook markets only. Free bets valid for 7 days, stake not returned. Restrictions + T&Cs apply. #Ad / GambleAware.org / 18+
View OfferAston Villa Team Form and Stats
| Form | Results | Points Per Game |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | dwlwwwldwl | 1.70 |
| Home | lwlwl | 1.20 |
| Away | dwwwd | 2.20 |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 40% | 60% |
| Average Goals Per Game | 2.00 | 2.40 | 1.60 |
| Scored | 1.10 | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| Conceded | 0.90 | 1.40 | 0.40 |
| BTTS | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Clean Sheets | 40% | 20% | 60% |
| Failed to Score | 30% | 40% | 20% |
| Expected Goals | 1.70 | 1.88 | 1.52 |
| Expected Goals Against | 1.48 | 1.23 | 1.73 |
Leeds United Team Form and Stats
| Form | Results | Points Per Game |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | ddlwwdlwdd | 1.40 |
| Home | dwlw | 1.75 |
| Away | dlwddd | 1.17 |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Win % | 30% | 50% | 17% |
| Average Goals Per Game | 3.00 | 2.75 | 3.17 |
| Scored | 1.50 | 1.25 | 1.67 |
| Conceded | 1.50 | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| BTTS | 70% | 50% | 83% |
| Clean Sheets | 20% | 25% | 17% |
| Failed to Score | 20% | 25% | 17% |
| Expected Goals | 1.36 | 1.21 | 1.46 |
| Expected Goals Against | 1.61 | 1.46 | 1.71 |
Aston Villa vs Leeds United Head to Head Statistics (H2H)
Aston Villa (38%)
13 Matches
Leeds United (23%)
Aston Villa vs Leeds United Past Results
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