Brighton welcome Burnley in a clash that, on paper, heavily tilts toward the hosts. As the Clarets are hit by injuries, our prediction firmly points toward a 2-0 home win. The Seagulls remain difficult to beat at the Amex, earning 1.60 points per home game and scoring 1.80 goals per match on their own turf. Their xG numbers (1.89 xG at home) back up that attacking output, though the likely absence of important forward Yankuba Minteh slightly reduces their forward depth. Still, with 40% clean sheets and a balanced goals-against figure (1.20 conceded at home), Brighton maintain a sturdy base.
Burnley, meanwhile, continue to slide. They sit on just 0.20 PPG overall and are still without a league win, while defensive issues deepen with Maxime Esteve joining a long list of absentees. Their away form is particularly concerning: 0.25 PPG, 2.25 goals conceded, and 0 clean sheets. Despite scoring in all away games recently, their defensive structure collapses too easily, shown by an xGA of 1.72 per away match.
Given aforementioned statistical data, Home Win should be considered, with additional value on Over 1.5 and Over 2.5 goals as Burnley games average 2.8+ overall and Brighton create high expected goals at home.
This Premier League match will be played on Saturday 3 January 2026 at 15:00.
What is our Brighton vs Burnley prediction?
Our prediction for this match: Brighton 2 - 0 Burnley
Brighton vs Burnley Betting Tips
- Correct Score: 2-0
- Both Teams To Score (BTTS): No
- Over / Under 2.5 Goals: Under 2.5 Goals
- Over / Under 1.5 Goals: Over 1.5 Goals
- Goalscorer: Danny Welbeck @ 137 Odds
- To be booked: Yankuba Minteh @ 175 Odds
- Shots on Target (Home): Over 4.5
- Shots on Target (Away): Under 2.5
- Shots on Target (Total): Over 4.5
- Total Corners: 9 - 11 @ 162 Odds
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View OfferBrighton Team Form and Stats
| Form | Results | Points Per Game |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | dldld | 1.30 |
| Home | wwldd | 1.60 |
| Away | dwlld | 1.00 |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Win % | 30% | 40% | 20% |
| Average Goals Per Game | 2.60 | 3.00 | 2.20 |
| Scored | 1.40 | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| Conceded | 1.20 | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| BTTS | 50% | 60% | 40% |
| Clean Sheets | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Failed to Score | 30% | 20% | 40% |
| Expected Goals | 1.65 | 1.89 | 1.41 |
| Expected Goals Against | 1.54 | 1.42 | 1.66 |
Burnley Team Form and Stats
| Form | Results | Points Per Game |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | llddl | 0.20 |
| Home | llldl | 0.17 |
| Away | llld | 0.25 |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Win % | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Average Goals Per Game | 2.80 | 2.33 | 3.50 |
| Scored | 0.80 | 0.50 | 1.25 |
| Conceded | 2.00 | 1.83 | 2.25 |
| BTTS | 60% | 33% | 100% |
| Clean Sheets | 10% | 17% | 0% |
| Failed to Score | 40% | 67% | 0% |
| Expected Goals | 1.21 | 1.30 | 1.08 |
| Expected Goals Against | 1.54 | 1.43 | 1.72 |
Brighton vs Burnley Head to Head Statistics (H2H)
Brighton (25%)
20 Matches
Burnley (25%)
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