Villarreal face Real Madrid in a La Liga derby where both sides face some absences. As Villarreal suit title-chasing visitors, we predict a 2-1 away win. The Yellow Submarine, missing Mourino and Comesana through suspension, are looking to bounce back after a 2-0 defeat to Real Betis. Marcelino's men have averaged 1.5 goals scored at home, but have conceded 1.5 per match, with clean sheets in just 25% of home games. Their attack is capable, with an expected goals (xG) of 1.50 at home, though defensive lapses remain a concern.
Real Madrid, without Tchouameni due to suspension, rely on their depth to maintain consistency. They have scored 2.0 goals per away match while conceding 2.0, and both teams have scored in 100% of their recent away games. Brahim Diaz is back from international duty but is expected on the bench. H2H history favors the visitors: Real Madrid have won 53% of clashes, Villarreal 15%, and 71% of matches saw both teams score, highlighting a high-scoring trend.
Real Madrid are leading the H2H record and aim to overtake Barcelona in top position. Therefore, Away Win should be considered, alongside Real Madrid Over 1.5 goals and Over 2.5 goals total as both teams have been involved in high-scoring games.
This Primera Division match will be played on Saturday 24 January 2026 at 20:00.
What is our Villarreal vs Real Madrid prediction?
Our prediction for this match: Villarreal 1 - 2 Real Madrid
Villarreal vs Real Madrid Betting Tips
- Anytime Goalscorer: Kylian Mbappe @ -150 Odds
- To be Booked: Tajon Buchanan @ 160 Odds
- Shots on Target (Home): Over 2.5
- Shots on Target (Away): Over 4.5
- Shots on Target (Total): Over 7.5
- Total Corners: 9 - 11 @ 162 Odds
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View OfferVillarreal Team Form and Stats
| Form | Results | Points Per Game |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | llwwl | 1.30 |
| Home | wllw | 1.50 |
| Away | wdlwl | 1.17 |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 50% | 33% |
| Average Goals Per Game | 3.30 | 3.25 | 3.33 |
| Scored | 1.50 | 1.75 | 1.33 |
| Conceded | 1.80 | 1.50 | 2.00 |
| BTTS | 60% | 50% | 67% |
| Clean Sheets | 10% | 25% | 0% |
| Failed to Score | 30% | 25% | 33% |
| Expected Goals | 1.72 | 1.50 | 1.87 |
| Expected Goals Against | 1.53 | 1.38 | 1.63 |
Real Madrid Team Form and Stats
| Form | Results | Points Per Game |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | wwllw | 1.80 |
| Home | llwww | 1.80 |
| Away | wwwll | 1.80 |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| Average Goals Per Game | 3.60 | 3.00 | 4.20 |
| Scored | 2.10 | 2.00 | 2.20 |
| Conceded | 1.50 | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| BTTS | 70% | 40% | 100% |
| Clean Sheets | 20% | 40% | 0% |
| Failed to Score | 10% | 20% | 0% |
| Expected Goals | 2.06 | 2.21 | 1.92 |
| Expected Goals Against | 1.47 | 1.28 | 1.65 |
Villarreal vs Real Madrid Head to Head Statistics (H2H)
Villarreal (15%)
34 Matches
Real Madrid (53%)
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