Malaga host Almeria to their Estadio La Rosaleda in an intense Andalusian derby. Given Almeria's fine away record, we predict a 2-1 win for los Rojiblancos. Despite a long injury list, los Boquerones showed no signs of weakness in a convincing 3–1 win over Albacete. At home, they are particularly strong, averaging 2.0 points per game and scoring an impressive 2.5 goals per match, with home fixtures producing a high 4.0 total goals on average. Defensive solidity is lacking, though, as Malaga have failed to keep a single clean sheet this season and see BTTS land in 100% of their home games.
The visitors head into the local derby with slightly better overall numbers, collecting 1.9 points per game and winning 60% of their matches. Their away performances are solid, with 1.8 points per game and 2.0 goals scored on average. The return of Nelson Monte should strengthen a defense that already concedes just 1.2 goals per away match. Historically, Almeria have had the edge in this fixture, but derby conditions often reduce the relevance of past meetings.
Given aforementioned statistical data, Over 2.5 goals, BTTS and Almeria to win are our best betting options for Sunday's Andalusian derby.
This Segunda Division match will be played on Sunday 21 December 2025 at 13:00.
What is our Malaga vs Almeria prediction?
Our prediction for this match: Malaga 1 - 2 Almeria
Malaga vs Almeria Betting Tips
- Correct Score: 1-2
- Both Teams To Score (BTTS): Yes
- Over / Under 2.5 Goals: Over 2.5 Goals
- Over / Under 1.5 Goals: Over 1.5 Goals
- Goalscorer: Carlos Chupete @ 187 Odds
- Shots on Target (Home): Over 2.5
- Shots on Target (Away): Over 4.5
- Shots on Target (Total): Over 7.5
- Total Corners: 9 - 11 @ 162 Odds
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View OfferMalaga Team Form and Stats
| Form | Results | Points Per Game |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | wdldw | 1.50 |
| Home | wdwd | 2.00 |
| Away | lldlw | 1.17 |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 50% | 33% |
| Average Goals Per Game | 3.30 | 4.00 | 2.83 |
| Scored | 1.90 | 2.50 | 1.50 |
| Conceded | 1.40 | 1.50 | 1.33 |
| BTTS | 90% | 100% | 83% |
| Clean Sheets | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Failed to Score | 10% | 0% | 17% |
| Expected Goals | 1.57 | 1.90 | 1.35 |
| Expected Goals Against | 1.53 | 1.79 | 1.37 |
Almeria Team Form and Stats
| Form | Results | Points Per Game |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | ldlwl | 1.90 |
| Home | wwwdl | 2.00 |
| Away | wwllw | 1.80 |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| Average Goals Per Game | 2.70 | 2.20 | 3.20 |
| Scored | 1.80 | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| Conceded | 0.90 | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| BTTS | 50% | 40% | 60% |
| Clean Sheets | 50% | 60% | 40% |
| Failed to Score | 10% | 20% | 0% |
| Expected Goals | 1.61 | 1.76 | 1.46 |
| Expected Goals Against | 1.24 | 0.94 | 1.54 |
Malaga vs Almeria Head to Head Statistics (H2H)
Malaga (26%)
23 Matches
Almeria (48%)
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