Malaga vs Burgos Prediction & Betting Tips | 23/01/2026

Malaga vs Burgos Prediction and Betting Tips | 23 January 2026

Bojan Jovanovic • Football expert

22 January 2026 • 22:52 UTC • 1 min read

Malaga vs Burgos Prediction and Betting Tips 23 January 2026

Málaga continue to climb the table after five straight wins and given their attacking potential at home, we predict a 1-0 home win. Even with the absences of Brasanac, Enriquez, Garcia, Luismi, Pastor and Sanchez, their attacking output has remained impressive, averaging 2.00 points per game and scoring 2 goals per home match. Defensive stability is less convincing, however, with 0% home clean sheets and 100% BTTS at La Rosaleda.

Los Burgaleses travel to Andalusia without their main striker Fer Niño, who is suspended following his red card in the 1-0 victory over Huesca. Their form is inconsistent (DLWLW), but the defensive numbers are notably more stable than Malaga’s: only 0.90 goals conceded per match overall and 1.00 away. Burgos also fail to score in 40% of their matches, and Niño’s absence further reduces their attacking threat.

Considering Malaga's strong form and Burgos' weakened attack, Home Win should be considered, alongside Under 2.5 goals and Malaga to Win to Nil as Burgos are rarely involved in high-scoring contests.

This Segunda Division match will be played on Friday 23 January 2026 at 19:30.

What is our Malaga vs Burgos prediction?

Our prediction for this match: Malaga 1 - 0 Burgos

Malaga vs Burgos Betting Tips

Correct Score: 1-0
Both Teams To Score (BTTS): No
Over / Under 2.5 Goals: Under 2.5 Goals
Over / Under 1.5 Goals: Under 1.5 Goals
Anytime Goalscorer: Carlos Chupete @ 150 Odds
Shots on Target (Home): Over 2.5
Shots on Target (Away): Under 2.5
Shots on Target (Total): Over 2.5
Total Corners: 6 - 8 @ 160 Odds

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Malaga Team Form and Stats

Form	Results	Points Per Game
Overall	wwwww	2.00
Home	wdww	2.50
Away	dlwww	1.67

Stats	Overall	Home	Away
Win %	60%	75%	50%
Average Goals Per Game	2.80	3.25	2.50
Scored	1.70	2.00	1.50
Conceded	1.10	1.25	1.00
BTTS	80%	100%	67%
Clean Sheets	10%	0%	17%
Failed to Score	10%	0%	17%
Expected Goals	1.63	1.98	1.39
Expected Goals Against	1.46	1.37	1.52

Burgos Team Form and Stats

Form	Results	Points Per Game
Overall	dlwlw	1.60
Home	wdwlw	1.67
Away	lwwl	1.50

Stats	Overall	Home	Away
Win %	50%	50%	50%
Average Goals Per Game	1.80	1.83	1.75
Scored	0.90	1.00	0.75
Conceded	0.90	0.83	1.00
BTTS	30%	33%	25%
Clean Sheets	30%	33%	25%
Failed to Score	40%	33%	50%
Expected Goals	1.14	1.25	0.97
Expected Goals Against	1.27	1.16	1.44