Cagliari enter this clash hoping to frustrate a title-chasing Milan, but their numbers at home remain inconsistent. Therefore, our prediction leans toward a 2-1 away win. The Rossoblu average 1.25 PPG at Unipol Domus, scoring 1.75 goals per home match yet conceding the same amount (1.75). Their defensive vulnerability is reflected in a high 75% BTTS rate at home and only 25% clean sheets. Cagliari’s xGA (1.33) also suggests they tend to give up good chances, which could be costly against a top-tier opponent. Both Liteta and Luvumbo are on international duty, and the general injury list is long.
Milan travel to Sardinia aiming to overtake Interi in the top position, supported by strong form (1.80 PPG overall) and excellent home momentum, though their away numbers (1.33 PPG) are less dominant. The Rossoneri still manage 2.50 goals per away match while keeping their xGA relatively stable at 1.48. Across all competitions, Milan keep 40% clean sheets, with their attack reliable even without Rafael Leao, who is injured but was not missed in their recent 3-0 win over Verona.
Considering Milan's superior quality and much stronger statistical profile, Away Win boasts big value, alongside Over 2.5 goals and BTTS (both teams involved in high-scoring matches: Cagliari 2.70, Milan 2.40 avg).
This Serie A match will be played on Friday 2 January 2026 at 19:45.
What is our Cagliari vs MIlan prediction?
Our prediction for this match: Cagliari 1 - 2 MIlan
Cagliari vs MIlan Betting Tips
- Correct Score: 1-2
- Both Teams To Score (BTTS): Yes
- Over / Under 2.5 Goals: Over 2.5 Goals
- Over / Under 1.5 Goals: Over 1.5 Goals
- Goalscorer: Rafael Leao @ 137 Odds
- To be booked: Marko Rog @ 162 Odds
- Shots on Target (Home): Over 2.5
- Shots on Target (Away): Over 4.5
- Shots on Target (Total): Over 7.5
- Total Corners: 6 - 8 @ 175 Odds
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View OfferCagliari Team Form and Stats
| Form | Results | Points Per Game |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | dwldw | 1.00 |
| Home | ldwd | 1.25 |
| Away | dldlw | 0.83 |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Win % | 20% | 25% | 17% |
| Average Goals Per Game | 2.70 | 3.50 | 2.17 |
| Scored | 1.20 | 1.75 | 0.83 |
| Conceded | 1.50 | 1.75 | 1.33 |
| BTTS | 70% | 75% | 67% |
| Clean Sheets | 20% | 25% | 17% |
| Failed to Score | 20% | 0% | 33% |
| Expected Goals | 1.08 | 1.36 | 0.89 |
| Expected Goals Against | 1.52 | 1.33 | 1.65 |
MIlan Team Form and Stats
| Form | Results | Points Per Game |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | lwdlw | 1.80 |
| Home | wwdw | 2.50 |
| Away | dwlwl | 1.33 |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 75% | 33% |
| Average Goals Per Game | 2.40 | 2.25 | 2.50 |
| Scored | 1.40 | 1.75 | 1.17 |
| Conceded | 1.00 | 0.50 | 1.33 |
| BTTS | 40% | 25% | 50% |
| Clean Sheets | 40% | 75% | 17% |
| Failed to Score | 20% | 0% | 33% |
| Expected Goals | 1.36 | 1.58 | 1.22 |
| Expected Goals Against | 1.41 | 1.31 | 1.48 |
Cagliari vs MIlan Head to Head Statistics (H2H)
Cagliari (3%)
31 Matches
MIlan (74%)
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