Inter head into Sunday's Serie A derby as league leaders and given Napoli's poor display against Verona, our prediction firmly points toward a 2-1 home win. Cristian Chivu's men continue to look like the most complete side in Serie A, extending their strong run with a 2–0 win over Parma despite the absences of Dumfries, Frattesi, and Darmian. Even with key squad players out, their structure remains intact thanks to elite balance between chance creation and defensive stability. Inter boast 2.20 PPG overall, an excellent 3.00 goals scored per home game, and very strong underlying numbers (1.86 expected goals vs 0.98 xGA overall).
The title holders, meanwhile, remain competitive in terms of results (2.00 PPG) but far less convincing on the pitch. Their 2–2 draw with relegation-threatened Verona exposed the gaps created by their injury list: De Bruyne, Lukaku, David Neres, Anguissa, and Beukema are all unavailable—and these are first-team or major-rotation players. Napoli’s away scoring remains modest (1.00 goals per game) and their chance creation drop-off on the road is notable (1.36 xG away).
Napoli can be stubborn defensively, but with so many key attacking and midfield pieces missing, they are unlikely to match Inter’s tempo or chance creation. Therefore, Home Win should be considered alongside Inter Over 1.5 goals and Lautaro Martinez to Score.
This Serie A match will be played on Sunday 11 January 2026 at 19:45.
What is our Inter vs Napoli prediction?
Our prediction for this match: Inter 2 - 1 Napoli
Inter vs Napoli Betting Tips
- Correct Score: 2-1
- Both Teams To Score (BTTS): Yes
- Over / Under 2.5 Goals: Over 2.5 Goals
- Over / Under 1.5 Goals: Over 1.5 Goals
- Goalscorer: Lautaro Martinez @ 140 Odds
- To be booked: Noa Lang @ 260 Odds
- Shots on Target (Home): Over 4.5
- Shots on Target (Away): Over 2.5
- Shots on Target (Total): Over 7.5
- Total Corners: 9 - 11 @ 162 Odds
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View OfferInter Team Form and Stats
| Form | Results | Points Per Game |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | wdwww | 2.20 |
| Home | wwlw | 2.25 |
| Away | wwdww | 2.17 |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 75% | 67% |
| Average Goals Per Game | 2.80 | 3.75 | 2.17 |
| Scored | 2.10 | 3.00 | 1.50 |
| Conceded | 0.70 | 0.75 | 0.67 |
| BTTS | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Clean Sheets | 40% | 25% | 50% |
| Failed to Score | 10% | 25% | 0% |
| Expected Goals | 1.86 | 1.76 | 1.93 |
| Expected Goals Against | 0.98 | 1.04 | 0.95 |
Napoli Team Form and Stats
| Form | Results | Points Per Game |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | wwwwd | 2.00 |
| Home | dwwwd | 2.20 |
| Away | wllww | 1.80 |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| Average Goals Per Game | 2.10 | 2.60 | 1.60 |
| Scored | 1.40 | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| Conceded | 0.70 | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| BTTS | 30% | 60% | 0% |
| Clean Sheets | 50% | 40% | 60% |
| Failed to Score | 20% | 0% | 40% |
| Expected Goals | 1.42 | 1.49 | 1.36 |
| Expected Goals Against | 1.05 | 1.04 | 1.07 |
Inter vs Napoli Head to Head Statistics (H2H)
Inter (33%)
42 Matches
Napoli (33%)
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