What is our Milan vs Atalanta prediction?
Milan
1 - 1
Atalanta
Our prediction for this match: Milan 1 - 1 Atalanta
Milan vs Atalanta Preview
Stadio San Siro will be the centre of attention when Milan host Atalanta, with the Rossoneri eager to get back to winning ways after being held to a 1-1 draw by Sassuolo. Their attacking play lacked its usual spark in that encounter, and injuries to Matteo Gabbia and Alexis Saelemaekers will limit their options. Luka Modric is pushing for a starting spot and could bring valuable composure to the midfield. Milan have conceded just 0.75 goals per home game, so their defensive strength could prove important in a closely fought contest.
Atalanta travel to Milano in better spirits after beating Venezia 3-1, ending a three-game losing streak in the process. Gian Piero Gasperini’s side will hope that result marks a turning point, although injuries to Kossounou, Hien and Pompei remain a concern. Their away performances have been less convincing defensively, with 2.29 expected goals against on the road suggesting opponents have found opportunities to threaten.
Both sides have reasons to be optimistic, but Milan’s home solidity and Atalanta’s recent recovery point towards a competitive encounter. Taking everything into account, Milan or Draw, Under 3.5 goals and Half-Time Draw are our main betting picks for Sunday's Serie A derby.
This Serie A match will be played on Sunday, 18 October 2026 at 17:00.
- Competition
- Serie A
- Kick-off
- Sun 18 Oct, 17:00UK time
Milan vs Atalanta Betting Tips
| Betting Tip | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Correct ScoreMilan 1-1 Atalanta | 650 | |
| Double ChanceX2 | 110 | |
| Draw No BetAC Milan | -275 | |
| Half Time/Full TimeDraw / Draw | 550 | |
| Asian HandicapAtalanta +1 | -149 | |
| European HandicapAtalanta +1 | -138 | |
| Both Teams to ScoreYes | -163 | |
| Over / Under 1.5 GoalsOver 1.5 Goals | -500 | |
| Over / Under 2.5 GoalsUnder 2.5 Goals | 130 | |
| Over / Under 3.5 GoalsUnder 3.5 Goals | -200 | |
| Over / Under 4.5 GoalsUnder 4.5 Goals | -500 | |
| Clean SheetAC Milan: No | -250 | |
| Anytime GoalscorerChristian Pulisic | 137 | |
| First GoalscorerChristian Pulisic | 500 | |
| To be BookedFranck Kessie | 210 | |
| Total Corners9 - 11 | 162 |
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View OfferMilan Team Form and Stats
| Form | Results | Points Per Game |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | lwwwddlwdw | 1.80 |
| Home | wlw | 2.00 |
| Away | lwwdddw | 1.71 |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 67% | 43% |
| Average Goals Per Game | 3.10 | 2.33 | 3.43 |
| Scored | 1.90 | 1.67 | 2.00 |
| Conceded | 1.20 | 0.67 | 1.43 |
| BTTS | 50% | 0% | 71% |
| Clean Sheets | 30% | 67% | 14% |
| Failed to Score | 20% | 33% | 14% |
| Expected Goals | 1.45 | 1.57 | 1.39 |
| Expected Goals Against | 1.22 | 0.98 | 1.32 |
Atalanta Team Form and Stats
| Form | Results | Points Per Game |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | wdwwwlllww | 1.90 |
| Home | wdwwlww | 2.29 |
| Away | wll | 1.00 |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 71% | 33% |
| Average Goals Per Game | 2.20 | 2.29 | 2.00 |
| Scored | 1.30 | 1.57 | 0.67 |
| Conceded | 0.90 | 0.71 | 1.33 |
| BTTS | 50% | 57% | 33% |
| Clean Sheets | 40% | 43% | 33% |
| Failed to Score | 20% | 14% | 33% |
| Expected Goals | 1.47 | 1.64 | 1.08 |
| Expected Goals Against | 1.64 | 1.35 | 2.30 |
Milan vs Atalanta Head to Head Statistics (H2H)
Milan (37%)
35 Matches
Atalanta (34%)
Milan vs Atalanta Past Results
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