With the Scudetto race still alive, Milan enter this fixture in strong form after a 2-1 win over Pisa. As Parma continue to struggle in front of goal, especially on the road, we predict a 1-0 home win. Mexican striker Santiago Gimenez remains the only absentee, but Massimiliano Allegri’s squad depth ensures minimal disruption. Milan’s home numbers are impressive: 2.33 PPG, 67% home wins, and they concede just 0.33 goals per game at San Siro, keeping 67% clean sheets. Their expected goals at home (2.27) also reflects consistent attacking output.
Parma come into this after a morale-boosting 2-1 win over Verona, climbing toward mid-table. However, fitness clouds remain over Frigan, Ndiaye, and Estevez, and Parma’s attack continues to underwhelm—scoring just 0.8 goals per game both home and away. Defensively the Gli Emiliani are competent (40% clean sheets), but they allow 1.3 goals per game overall and regularly sit deep against top sides.
Given Milan's superior form and far stronger xG/xGA, we are tempted to bet on Home Win, alongside Under 3.5 and Under 2.5 goals as Parma lack cutting edge.
This Serie A match will be played on Sunday 22 February 2026 at 17:00.
What is our Milan vs Parma prediction?
Our prediction for this match: Milan 1 - 0 Parma
Milan vs Parma Betting Tips
- Correct Score: 1-0 @ 500 Odds
- Both Teams to Score (BTTS): No @ -150 Odds
- Over / Under 4.5 Goals: Under 4.5 Goals @ -700 Odds
- Over / Under 3.5 Goals: Under 3.5 Goals @ -275 Odds
- Over / Under 2.5 Goals: Under 2.5 Goals @ 100 Odds
- Over / Under 1.5 Goals: Under 1.5 Goals @ 300 Odds
- Anytime Goalscorer: Rafael Leao @ 105 Odds
- First Goalscorer: Rafael Leao @ 350 Odds
- To be Booked: Adrien Rabiot @ 110 Odds
- Asian Handicap: Parma +1.5 @ -134 Odds
- European Handicap: Parma +2 @ -138 Odds
- Shots on Target (Home): Over 2.5
- Shots on Target (Away): Under 2.5
- Shots on Target (Total): Over 2.5
- Total Corners: 9 - 11 @ 162 Odds
- Double Chance: 12 @ -600 Odds
- Draw No Bet: AC Milan to Win @ -1000 Odds
- Half Time/Full Time: AC Milan to Win/AC Milan to Win @ -105 Odds
- Clean Sheet: AC Milan - Yes @ -125 Odds
Where Can You Place Bets on Milan vs Parma?
You can place your bets on Milan vs Parma at the following bookmakers:
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18+ New UK+ROI Customers only. Certain deposit methods & bet types excl. Min first £/€5 bet within 14 days of account reg at min odds 1/2 to get 4x £/€5 free bets. Free bets available to use on selected sportsbook markets only. Free bets valid for 7 days, stake not returned. Restrictions + T&Cs apply. #Ad / GambleAware.org / 18+
View OfferMilan Team Form and Stats
| Form | Results | Points Per Game |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | wwdww | 2.10 |
| Home | wdw | 2.33 |
| Away | dwdww | 2.00 |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 67% | 57% |
| Average Goals Per Game | 2.30 | 2.00 | 2.43 |
| Scored | 1.60 | 1.67 | 1.57 |
| Conceded | 0.70 | 0.33 | 0.86 |
| BTTS | 50% | 33% | 57% |
| Clean Sheets | 40% | 67% | 29% |
| Failed to Score | 10% | 0% | 14% |
| Expected Goals | 1.47 | 2.27 | 1.13 |
| Expected Goals Against | 1.26 | 0.67 | 1.51 |
Parma Team Form and Stats
| Form | Results | Points Per Game |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | dllww | 1.50 |
| Home | wldlw | 1.40 |
| Away | dwdlw | 1.60 |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Average Goals Per Game | 2.10 | 2.20 | 2.00 |
| Scored | 0.80 | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| Conceded | 1.30 | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| BTTS | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Clean Sheets | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Failed to Score | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Expected Goals | 1.26 | 1.43 | 1.10 |
| Expected Goals Against | 1.68 | 1.72 | 1.63 |
Milan vs Parma Head to Head Statistics (H2H)
Milan (62%)
21 Matches
Parma (19%)
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