Borussia Dortmund face Mainz at Signal Iduna Park aiming to extend their strong home form. As Mainz struggle defensively on the road, our prediction firmly points toward a 3-1 home win. Even with Nico Schlotterbeck suspended, BVB have enough depth at centre-back to cope. The Yellow-Blacks continue to look sharp in attack, averaging 2.2 goals per home match and posting an overall xG of 1.60, while their defensive numbers at home are solid with only 1.07 xGA.
Mainz head into the match in excellent form themselves, winning four of their last five, including a convincing 2-0 victory over Augsburg. Urs Fischer is expected to keep the same XI, and Mainz’s confidence is backed by numbers: die Nullfunfer concede only 0.40 goals per game at home this season, though their away defensive record collapses to 1.60 conceded and 2.16 xGA. Their matches on the road are high-event, averaging 3.20 total goals with 100% BTTS away.
Borussia Dortmund have turned their Signal-Iduna-Park into a real fortress and given their H2H dominance, Home Win is our main betting tip for this Bundesliga clash, alongside BTTS (Mainz 100% BTTS away, Dortmund rarely keep clean sheets), and Over 2.5 goals (51% H2H).
This Bundesliga match will be played on Friday 13 February 2026 at 19:30.
What is our Borussia Dortmund vs Mainz prediction?
Our prediction for this match: Borussia Dortmund 3 - 1 Mainz
Borussia Dortmund vs Mainz Betting Tips
- Over / Under 4.5 Goals: Under 4.5 Goals @ -450 Odds
- Over / Under 3.5 Goals: Over 3.5 Goals @ 150 Odds
- Anytime Goalscorer: Serhou Guirassy @ -120 Odds
- First Goalscorer: Serhou Guirassy @ 333 Odds
- To be Booked: Dominik Kohr @ 160 Odds
- Asian Handicap: Borussia Dortmund -0.5 @ -167 Odds
- European Handicap: Mainz +3 @ -600 Odds
- Shots on Target (Home): Over 7.5
- Shots on Target (Away): Over 2.5
- Shots on Target (Total): Over 9.5
- Total Corners: 9 - 11 @ 162 Odds
- Double Chance: 12 @ -450 Odds
- Draw No Bet: Borussia Dortmund to Win @ -400 Odds
- Half Time/Full Time: Borussia Dortmund to Win/Borussia Dortmund to Win @ 150 Odds
- Clean Sheet: Borussia Dortmund - No @ -225 Odds
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View OfferBorussia Dortmund Team Form and Stats
| Form | Results | Points Per Game |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | lwlww | 2.00 |
| Home | wwwlw | 2.40 |
| Away | ddlww | 1.60 |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 80% | 40% |
| Average Goals Per Game | 3.30 | 3.40 | 3.20 |
| Scored | 2.00 | 2.20 | 1.80 |
| Conceded | 1.30 | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| BTTS | 50% | 40% | 60% |
| Clean Sheets | 30% | 40% | 20% |
| Failed to Score | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Expected Goals | 1.60 | 1.55 | 1.66 |
| Expected Goals Against | 1.37 | 1.07 | 1.67 |
Mainz Team Form and Stats
| Form | Results | Points Per Game |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | wlwww | 1.90 |
| Home | wdwww | 2.60 |
| Away | dddlw | 1.20 |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 80% | 20% |
| Average Goals Per Game | 2.70 | 2.20 | 3.20 |
| Scored | 1.70 | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| Conceded | 1.00 | 0.40 | 1.60 |
| BTTS | 70% | 40% | 100% |
| Clean Sheets | 30% | 60% | 0% |
| Failed to Score | 10% | 20% | 0% |
| Expected Goals | 1.40 | 1.64 | 1.16 |
| Expected Goals Against | 1.61 | 1.05 | 2.16 |
Borussia Dortmund vs Mainz Head to Head Statistics (H2H)
Borussia Dortmund (60%)
35 Matches
Mainz (20%)
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