Hamburg head into Sunday's clash unbeaten in five but lacking a cutting edge, with four draws in that run. However, we predict a 3-1 away win as Bayern Munich do not suit HSV. Hamburg's home numbers are solid — 1.67 points per game, 1.33 goals scored, and just 1.00 conceded — yet their xG of 1.58 at home shows a team that creates without always finishing. Defender Alexander Rossing Lelesiit is unlikely to feature after a knock in the derby against St. Pauli, further limiting their already thin defensive depth.
Bayern Munich travel after a shock 2-1 defeat to Augsburg, a result that should sharpen their focus. Their away form is perfect: 5 wins from 5, 4.40 goals scored per away match, and only 0.40 conceded. With both Jamal Musiala and Joshua Kimmich pushing for returns to the starting XI, Bayern’s attacking fluidity and midfield control should improve significantly. Their underlying numbers remain elite, boasting 2.44 xG away and 1.11 xGA.
Historically, Bayern dominate this fixture (18–6–3), and goals are common with 63% over 2.5 across their H2H meetings. As Bayern's away scoring rate and defensive strength are far superior, we are tempted to bet on Away Win, alongside Over 2.5 goals and Bayern Munich/Bayern Munich.
This Bundesliga match will be played on Saturday 31 January 2026 at 17:30.
What is our Hamburg vs Bayern Munich prediction?
Our prediction for this match: Hamburg 1 - 3 Bayern Munich
Hamburg vs Bayern Munich Betting Tips
- Anytime Goalscorer: Harry Kane @ -163 Odds
- First Goalscorer: Harry Kane @ 300 Odds
- To be booked: Nicolas Capaldo @ 240 Odds
- Asian Handicap: Bayern Munich -1.5 @ -130 Odds
- Shots on Target (Home): Over 2.5
- Shots on Target (Away): Over 7.5
- Shots on Target (Total): Over 9.5
- Total Corners: 9 - 11 @ 162 Odds
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View OfferHamburg Team Form and Stats
| Form | Results | Points Per Game |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | ldldd | 1.10 |
| Home | wdwdd | 1.67 |
| Away | llld | 0.25 |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Win % | 20% | 33% | 0% |
| Average Goals Per Game | 2.30 | 2.33 | 2.25 |
| Scored | 1.00 | 1.33 | 0.50 |
| Conceded | 1.30 | 1.00 | 1.75 |
| BTTS | 70% | 83% | 50% |
| Clean Sheets | 20% | 17% | 25% |
| Failed to Score | 30% | 17% | 50% |
| Expected Goals | 1.45 | 1.58 | 1.25 |
| Expected Goals Against | 1.37 | 1.29 | 1.51 |
Bayern Munich Team Form and Stats
| Form | Results | Points Per Game |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | wwwwl | 2.50 |
| Home | wdwwl | 2.00 |
| Away | wwwww | 3.00 |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Win % | 80% | 60% | 100% |
| Average Goals Per Game | 4.60 | 4.40 | 4.80 |
| Scored | 3.80 | 3.20 | 4.40 |
| Conceded | 0.80 | 1.20 | 0.40 |
| BTTS | 60% | 80% | 40% |
| Clean Sheets | 40% | 20% | 60% |
| Failed to Score | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Expected Goals | 2.38 | 2.32 | 2.44 |
| Expected Goals Against | 0.97 | 0.82 | 1.11 |
Hamburg vs Bayern Munich Head to Head Statistics (H2H)
Hamburg (11%)
27 Matches
Bayern Munich (67%)
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