Leipzig return to action well-rested after their weekend fixture was postponed, and they report no fresh injury problems. Given Freiburg's defensive struggles on the road, we predict a 2-1 home win. Bakayoko, Nusa, and Ouedraogo all remain major doubts for the Red Bulls, which slightly affects attacking depth. Even so, Leipzig’s home numbers this season have been excellent: 2.40 points per game, 80% home win rate, and 3.00 goals scored per home match. Their games at Red Bull Arena are typically high-tempo, averaging 4.00 goals with 60% BTTS, supported by strong metrics such as 2.12 expected goals at home.
Freiburg travel with confidence after a 2-1 win over ten-man Hamburg and enjoy a rare scenario—a full squad available. They have been particularly strong at home, but their away form remains inconsistent, earning just 1.00 PPG on the road and conceding 2.75 goals per away match. Their away BTTS frequency (75%) reflects vulnerability but also an ability to contribute offensively.
H2H trends also point toward goals: 68% over 2.5, 73% BTTS, and Leipzig winning more than half of the 22 meetings. Considering Leipzig's splendid home form (80% wins) and Freiburg’s weak away PPG, Home Win should be considered, alongside BTTS and Over 2.5 goals.
This Bundesliga match will be played on Wednesday 14 January 2026 at 19:30.
What is our Leipzig vs Freiburg prediction?
Our prediction for this match: Leipzig 2 - 1 Freiburg
Leipzig vs Freiburg Betting Tips
- Correct Score: 2-1
- Both Teams To Score (BTTS): Yes
- Over / Under 2.5 Goals: Over 2.5 Goals
- Over / Under 1.5 Goals: Over 1.5 Goals
- Anytime Goalscorer: Romulo da Cruz @ 160 Odds
- To be booked: Christoph Baumgartner @ 275 Odds
- Shots on Target (Home): Over 4.5
- Shots on Target (Away): Over 2.5
- Shots on Target (Total): Over 7.5
- Total Corners: 9 - 11 @ 162 Odds
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View OfferLeipzig Team Form and Stats
| Form | Results | Points Per Game |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | dwwll | 1.90 |
| Home | wwwwl | 2.40 |
| Away | wwldl | 1.40 |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 80% | 40% |
| Average Goals Per Game | 3.90 | 4.00 | 3.80 |
| Scored | 2.70 | 3.00 | 2.40 |
| Conceded | 1.20 | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| BTTS | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| Clean Sheets | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Failed to Score | 10% | 0% | 20% |
| Expected Goals | 1.91 | 2.12 | 1.70 |
| Expected Goals Against | 1.39 | 1.45 | 1.33 |
Freiburg Team Form and Stats
| Form | Results | Points Per Game |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | lwdww | 2.00 |
| Home | wwwdw | 2.67 |
| Away | ldlw | 1.00 |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 83% | 25% |
| Average Goals Per Game | 3.30 | 2.50 | 4.50 |
| Scored | 1.90 | 2.00 | 1.75 |
| Conceded | 1.40 | 0.50 | 2.75 |
| BTTS | 60% | 50% | 75% |
| Clean Sheets | 40% | 50% | 25% |
| Failed to Score | 10% | 0% | 25% |
| Expected Goals | 1.73 | 1.98 | 1.36 |
| Expected Goals Against | 1.29 | 0.91 | 1.86 |
Leipzig vs Freiburg Head to Head Statistics (H2H)
Leipzig (55%)
22 Matches
Freiburg (18%)
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