RB Leipzig will look to build on a strong home record when they host Mainz, having averaged 2.00 points per game at the Red Bull Arena and scoring 2.50 goals per home match. With Mainz continuously struggling on the road, our prediction leans toward a 3-1 home win. The Red Bulls were unlucky not to beat St. Pauli in their postponed fixture (1–1), with a late David Raum penalty costing them two points. Even with Christoph Baumgartner suspended, Leipzig’s squad depth should soften the blow, and their underlying numbers remain impressive: 2.09 xG at home highlights consistent chance creation.
Die Nullfunfer, on the other hand, arrive boosted by a 3–1 win over Wolfsburg, but their away form remains a major concern. Mainz average just 0.60 points per game on the road, have 0% away win rate, and concede 2.20 goals per away match. Their defensive metrics are also worrying, with 2.32 xGA away, indicating they regularly allow high-quality opportunities.
The H2H history leans Leipzig’s way (9 wins from 19), and 68% of previous meetings saw over 2.5 goals. Considering Leipzig's fine home record and Mainz’s poor away form, Home Win should be considered, alongside Over 2.5 goals and Leipzig Over 1.5.
This Bundesliga match will be played on Saturday 31 January 2026 at 14:30.
What is our Leipzig vs Mainz prediction?
Our prediction for this match: Leipzig 3 - 1 Mainz
Leipzig vs Mainz Betting Tips
- Anytime Goalscorer: Conrad Harder @ 130 Odds
- First Goalscorer: Conrad Harder @ 500 Odds
- To be booked: Dominik Kohr @ 140 Odds
- Asian Handicap: RB Leipzig -0.5 @ -191 Odds
- Shots on Target (Home): Over 7.5
- Shots on Target (Away): Over 2.5
- Shots on Target (Total): Over 9.5
- Total Corners: 9 - 11 @ 160 Odds
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View OfferLeipzig Team Form and Stats
| Form | Results | Points Per Game |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | lwlwd | 1.70 |
| Home | wwlwl | 2.00 |
| Away | dlwd | 1.25 |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 67% | 25% |
| Average Goals Per Game | 3.30 | 4.00 | 2.25 |
| Scored | 2.00 | 2.50 | 1.25 |
| Conceded | 1.30 | 1.50 | 1.00 |
| BTTS | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Clean Sheets | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Failed to Score | 10% | 0% | 25% |
| Expected Goals | 1.88 | 2.09 | 1.56 |
| Expected Goals Against | 1.24 | 1.42 | 0.98 |
Mainz Team Form and Stats
| Form | Results | Points Per Game |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | ddwlw | 1.30 |
| Home | lwdww | 2.00 |
| Away | ldddl | 0.60 |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Win % | 30% | 60% | 0% |
| Average Goals Per Game | 2.70 | 2.00 | 3.40 |
| Scored | 1.30 | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| Conceded | 1.40 | 0.60 | 2.20 |
| BTTS | 60% | 40% | 80% |
| Clean Sheets | 20% | 40% | 0% |
| Failed to Score | 30% | 40% | 20% |
| Expected Goals | 1.27 | 1.59 | 0.95 |
| Expected Goals Against | 1.68 | 1.04 | 2.32 |
Leipzig vs Mainz Head to Head Statistics (H2H)
Leipzig (47%)
19 Matches
Mainz (32%)
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