Birmingham City welcome Derby County in a Championship clash where both teams look sharp up front and struggle at the back. Therefore, our prediction points toward a 2-1 home win. The Blues have been strong at home, collecting 2.6 points per game, scoring 3 goals per game, and keeping clean sheets in 40% of matches. They are missing midfielder Thomas Doyle due to a ban, which could weaken their midfield control, while defender Bright Osayi-Samuel is on international duty but not a first-team regular. Away form has been poor (0.2 points per game), highlighting a stark home-away contrast.
Derby, on the other hand, have been producing fine displays on the road, with the team averaging 2.4 points per game and scoring 2.2 goals per away game. The Rams have no fresh injuries and have been consistent in scoring, reflected in 80% BTTS in away matches. H2H trends favor high-scoring encounters: in 26 matches, 92% over 1.5 goals, 69% over 2.5 goals, 46% over 3.5 goals, and 73% BTTS.
As both sides score frequently and struggle defensively, BTTS is our main betting tip, alongside Over 2.5 goals (69% H2H) and Home Win.
This Championship match will be played on Friday 26 December 2025 at 12:30.
What is our Birmingham City vs Derby prediction?
Our prediction for this match: Birmingham City 2 - 1 Derby
Birmingham City vs Derby Betting Tips
- Correct Score: 2-1
- Both Teams To Score (BTTS): Yes
- Over / Under 2.5 Goals: Over 2.5 Goals
- Over / Under 1.5 Goals: Over 1.5 Goals
- Goalscorer: Jay Stansfield @ 160 Odds
- To be booked: Sondre Langas @ 160 Odds
- Shots on Target (Home): Over 4.5
- Shots on Target (Away): Over 2.5
- Shots on Target (Total): Over 7.5
- Total Corners: 9 - 11 @ 160 Odds
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View OfferBirmingham City Team Form and Stats
| Form | Results | Points Per Game |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | wlldl | 1.40 |
| Home | wwwwd | 2.60 |
| Away | ldlll | 0.20 |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 80% | 0% |
| Average Goals Per Game | 3.30 | 3.60 | 3.00 |
| Scored | 1.90 | 3.00 | 0.80 |
| Conceded | 1.40 | 0.60 | 2.20 |
| BTTS | 70% | 60% | 80% |
| Clean Sheets | 20% | 40% | 0% |
| Failed to Score | 10% | 0% | 20% |
| Expected Goals | 1.56 | 1.81 | 1.32 |
| Expected Goals Against | 1.34 | 1.00 | 1.68 |
Derby Team Form and Stats
| Form | Results | Points Per Game |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | lldwd | 1.70 |
| Home | wlldd | 1.00 |
| Away | wwwlw | 2.40 |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 20% | 80% |
| Average Goals Per Game | 3.20 | 3.20 | 3.20 |
| Scored | 1.80 | 1.40 | 2.20 |
| Conceded | 1.40 | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| BTTS | 90% | 100% | 80% |
| Clean Sheets | 10% | 0% | 20% |
| Failed to Score | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Expected Goals | 1.33 | 1.43 | 1.22 |
| Expected Goals Against | 1.21 | 1.01 | 1.40 |
Birmingham City vs Derby Head to Head Statistics (H2H)
Birmingham City (23%)
26 Matches
Derby (38%)
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