Derby County host Middlesbrough in a Championship clash between two sides showing very different profiles in home-and-away performance. With Derby suffering a dip in form, we predict that the Boro will emerge triumphant (1-2) in Thursday's encounter. The Rams' overall form sits at 1.20 points per game, but their home record remains a concern, collecting just 0.50 PPG at Pride Park. Defensive fragility is evident: Derby concede 2.00 goals per home match and have kept zero home clean sheets. However, they have at least been scoring reliably, netting in every league game this season and posting a strong 100% BTTS rate at home.
The Boro, despite Monday’s 1-0 defeat to Hull, arrive with far more balanced metrics. They average 1.75 PPG away from home and score 1.75 goals per away match. Their underlying numbers are impressive, with an away expected goals of 1.82, highlighting consistent attacking output. Fit-again Aidan Morris pushes for a starting spot, offering a boost in midfield stability and transition play.
Historically, Boro have dominated this fixture, winning 15 of 29 H2H meetings and given their fine away form, Away Win is our main betting tip for this matchup, alongside BTTS and Over 2.5 goals.
This Championship match will be played on Thursday 1 January 2026 at 15:00.
What is our Derby vs Middlesbrough prediction?
Our prediction for this match: Derby 1 - 2 Middlesbrough
Derby vs Middlesbrough Betting Tips
- Correct Score: 1-2
- Both Teams To Score (BTTS): Yes
- Over / Under 2.5 Goals: Over 2.5 Goals
- Over / Under 1.5 Goals: Over 1.5 Goals
- Goalscorer: Tommy Conway @ 200 Odds
- To be booked: Sondre Langas @ 175 Odds
- Shots on Target (Home): Over 2.5
- Shots on Target (Away): Over 4.5
- Shots on Target (Total): Over 7.5
- Total Corners: 9 - 11 @ 160 Odds
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View OfferDerby Team Form and Stats
| Form | Results | Points Per Game |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | dwddl | 1.20 |
| Home | lldd | 0.50 |
| Away | wlwdl | 1.67 |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Win % | 30% | 0% | 50% |
| Average Goals Per Game | 3.00 | 3.25 | 2.83 |
| Scored | 1.50 | 1.25 | 1.67 |
| Conceded | 1.50 | 2.00 | 1.17 |
| BTTS | 90% | 100% | 83% |
| Clean Sheets | 10% | 0% | 17% |
| Failed to Score | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Expected Goals | 1.24 | 1.51 | 1.05 |
| Expected Goals Against | 1.32 | 1.04 | 1.52 |
Middlesbrough Team Form and Stats
| Form | Results | Points Per Game |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | wwldl | 1.70 |
| Home | lwwdl | 1.67 |
| Away | dwwl | 1.75 |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Average Goals Per Game | 2.90 | 2.83 | 3.00 |
| Scored | 1.60 | 1.50 | 1.75 |
| Conceded | 1.30 | 1.33 | 1.25 |
| BTTS | 70% | 67% | 75% |
| Clean Sheets | 10% | 17% | 0% |
| Failed to Score | 30% | 33% | 25% |
| Expected Goals | 1.75 | 1.71 | 1.82 |
| Expected Goals Against | 1.20 | 1.33 | 1.02 |
Derby vs Middlesbrough Head to Head Statistics (H2H)
Derby (24%)
29 Matches
Middlesbrough (52%)
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