Leicester City look to respond after a disappointing 2-1 defeat to Watford and with Derby suffering a dip in form, we predict a 2-1 home win. The Foxes have struggled for stability lately, taking just one win from their last five league outings, although their games remain highly entertaining with 90% BTTS and 3.40 goals per game at home. Despite their mixed form, Leicester still generate enough danger in the final third, averaging 1.80 goals at home, though their 1.42 xGA shows why they continue to concede soft chances. The absence of Patson Daka, who is on international duty, is a blow, but there are no fresh injury worries for Marti Cifuentes' team.
Derby County enter this clash after a 1-1 Boxing Day draw with Birmingham City, extending their unbeaten run to four league games. The Rams have been particularly strong away from home with 2.00 PPG and only 1.00 goal conceded on average, showing a clear contrast to their struggles at Pride Park. Their attacking consistency is notable, having scored in every league match this season. However, the suspension of midfielder Joe Ward reduces their midfield depth at a crucial time.
As both teams average 3.0+ goals per match, Over 2.5 goals market seems appealing, with additional value on BTTS (Leicester 100% BTTS at home, Derby 80% BTTS away) and Leicester City to Win.
This Championship match will be played on Monday 29 December 2025 at 19:45.
What is our Leicester vs Derby prediction?
Our prediction for this match: Leicester 2 - 1 Derby
Leicester vs Derby Betting Tips
- Anytime Goalscorer: Jordan Ayew @ 220 Odds
- To be Booked: Sondre Langas @ 175 Odds
- Shots on Target (Home): Over 4.5
- Shots on Target (Away): Over 2.5
- Shots on Target (Total): Over 7.5
- Total Corners: 9 - 11 @ 160 Odds
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View OfferLeicester Team Form and Stats
| Form | Results | Points Per Game |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | wdwll | 1.40 |
| Home | dwlwl | 1.40 |
| Away | wlwdl | 1.40 |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Average Goals Per Game | 3.60 | 3.40 | 3.80 |
| Scored | 1.70 | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| Conceded | 1.90 | 1.60 | 2.20 |
| BTTS | 90% | 100% | 80% |
| Clean Sheets | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Failed to Score | 10% | 0% | 20% |
| Expected Goals | 1.09 | 1.08 | 1.09 |
| Expected Goals Against | 1.62 | 1.42 | 1.83 |
Derby Team Form and Stats
| Form | Results | Points Per Game |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | ldwdd | 1.50 |
| Home | wlldd | 1.00 |
| Away | wwlwd | 2.00 |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 20% | 60% |
| Average Goals Per Game | 3.00 | 3.20 | 2.80 |
| Scored | 1.60 | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| Conceded | 1.40 | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| BTTS | 90% | 100% | 80% |
| Clean Sheets | 10% | 0% | 20% |
| Failed to Score | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Expected Goals | 1.25 | 1.43 | 1.07 |
| Expected Goals Against | 1.32 | 1.01 | 1.62 |
Leicester vs Derby Head to Head Statistics (H2H)
Leicester (73%)
15 Matches
Derby (13%)
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