Middlesbrough welcome Derby County to their Riverside Stadium in what is expected to be a close encounter (1-1). The Boro’s home numbers remain decent, taking 1.60 points per game and scoring 1.40 goals per match, but overall inconsistency continues to hold them back. Their recent run of one win in five highlights their struggle to convert solid build-up play into results, despite posting a respectable expected goals of 1.44 at home. Defensively, Boro concede too often, allowing 1.40 goals per home game and keeping few clean sheets. Aidan Morris' injury could affect home team's overall display.
Derby, meanwhile, travel with momentum and excellent away statistics. With a 75% away win rate, 2.25 PPG, and 1.75 goals scored per away match, they’ve become a reliable force on the road. Their matches are consistently open, with 75% BTTS in away games and no clean sheets in that stretch. Although historical H2H data leans toward Middlesbrough, current form suggests Derby are well placed to challenge again and exploit Boro’s defensive lapses. There are no fresh injury worries in the away team.
Given the matchup dynamics and statistical trends, three fitting betting angles emerge: Derby Double Chance, Both Teams to Score, and Over 1.5 Goals.
This Championship match will be played on Saturday 29 November 2025 at 15:00.
What is our Middlesbrough vs Derby prediction?
Our prediction for this match: Middlesbrough 1 - 1 Derby
Middlesbrough vs Derby Betting Tips
- Correct Score: 1-1
- Both Teams To Score (BTTS): Yes
- Over / Under 2.5 Goals: Under 2.5 Goals
- Over / Under 1.5 Goals: Over 1.5 Goals
- Goalscorer: Tommy Conway @ 150 Odds
- To be booked: Sondre Langas @ 150 Odds
- Shots on Target (Home): Over 2.5
- Shots on Target (Away): Over 2.5
- Shots on Target (Total): Over 4.5
- Total Corners: 9 - 11 @ 160 Odds
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View OfferMiddlesbrough Team Form and Stats
| Form | Results | Points Per Game |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | ldwdl | 1.30 |
| Home | dwdwl | 1.60 |
| Away | lwldd | 1.00 |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Win % | 30% | 40% | 20% |
| Average Goals Per Game | 2.30 | 2.80 | 1.80 |
| Scored | 1.00 | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| Conceded | 1.30 | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| BTTS | 60% | 80% | 40% |
| Clean Sheets | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Failed to Score | 30% | 20% | 40% |
| Expected Goals | 1.58 | 1.44 | 1.72 |
| Expected Goals Against | 1.28 | 1.63 | 0.93 |
Derby Team Form and Stats
| Form | Results | Points Per Game |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | wwwlw | 2.00 |
| Home | dwwwl | 1.83 |
| Away | lwww | 2.25 |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 50% | 75% |
| Average Goals Per Game | 2.50 | 2.33 | 2.75 |
| Scored | 1.50 | 1.33 | 1.75 |
| Conceded | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| BTTS | 70% | 67% | 75% |
| Clean Sheets | 20% | 33% | 0% |
| Failed to Score | 10% | 0% | 25% |
| Expected Goals | 1.21 | 1.27 | 1.12 |
| Expected Goals Against | 1.40 | 1.28 | 1.59 |
Middlesbrough vs Derby Head to Head Statistics (H2H)
Middlesbrough (50%)
28 Matches
Derby (25%)
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