Middlesbrough and Southampton face each other at the Riverside in what looks like a finely balanced contest between two sides, with 1-1 our predicted outcome. The Boro suffered a 1–0 defeat to Derby in their last league match, yet there are no fresh injury concerns, which is a positive given Hellberg’s recent rotation issues. Their overall form is mixed, but consistent in one sense — they average 1.40 points per game across home and away. At the Riverside, matches tend to be open (2.80 goals per game), and although they score a respectable 1.40 goals, their 40% failed-to-score rate at home remains a concern. Still, the underlying numbers are encouraging: an xG of 1.83 suggests Boro regularly create chances, even if conversion has been inconsistent.
Southampton, on the other hand, head into Sunday's clash following a goalless draw with Millwall, a result that slowed their momentum but still underlined their attacking threat. Tonda Eckert remains without Charles, Downs, Edozie, Roerslev Rasmussen, and Stewart, though there are no new absentees. The Saints are a very different proposition away from home — while their away results have been uneven (0.80 PPG), their games are usually lively, averaging 3.80 goals per match, with BTTS landing in 100% of away fixtures. Southampton score 2.00 goals per game, backed by a solid expected goals of 1.73, but their away defense is leaky, conceding 1.80 goals on average and keeping 0% clean sheets.
Taking everything into account, Over 1.5 goals seems like a sure bet (H2H 86%; both teams’ goal averages support it), with additional value on BTTS (Southampton 100% BTTS away; Boro 60% overall) and Middlesbrough or Draw.
This Championship match will be played on Sunday 4 January 2026 at 15:00.
What is our Middlesbrough vs Southampton prediction?
Our prediction for this match: Middlesbrough 1 - 1 Southampton
Middlesbrough vs Southampton Betting Tips
- Correct Score: 1-1
- Both Teams To Score (BTTS): Yes
- Over / Under 2.5 Goals: Under 2.5 Goals
- Over / Under 1.5 Goals: Over 1.5 Goals
- Goalscorer: Tommy Conway @ 162 Odds
- To be booked: Flynn Downes @ 137 Odds
- Shots on Target (Home): Over 2.5
- Shots on Target (Away): Over 2.5
- Shots on Target (Total): Over 4.5
- Total Corners: 9 - 11 @ 160 Odds
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View OfferMiddlesbrough Team Form and Stats
| Form | Results | Points Per Game |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | wldll | 1.40 |
| Home | lwwdl | 1.40 |
| Away | dwwll | 1.40 |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Average Goals Per Game | 2.70 | 2.80 | 2.60 |
| Scored | 1.40 | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| Conceded | 1.30 | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| BTTS | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| Clean Sheets | 10% | 20% | 0% |
| Failed to Score | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Expected Goals | 1.84 | 1.83 | 1.85 |
| Expected Goals Against | 1.13 | 1.27 | 0.98 |
Southampton Team Form and Stats
| Form | Results | Points Per Game |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | ldldd | 1.50 |
| Home | wwwdd | 2.20 |
| Away | wllld | 0.80 |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 60% | 20% |
| Average Goals Per Game | 3.30 | 2.80 | 3.80 |
| Scored | 2.00 | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| Conceded | 1.30 | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| BTTS | 80% | 60% | 100% |
| Clean Sheets | 20% | 40% | 0% |
| Failed to Score | 10% | 20% | 0% |
| Expected Goals | 1.74 | 1.75 | 1.73 |
| Expected Goals Against | 1.58 | 1.42 | 1.75 |
Middlesbrough vs Southampton Head to Head Statistics (H2H)
Middlesbrough (29%)
7 Matches
Southampton (43%)
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