What is our Southampton vs Derby prediction?
Southampton
3 - 1
Derby
Our prediction for this match: Southampton 3 - 1 Derby
Southampton vs Derby Preview
All eyes will be on St. Mary’s Stadium as Southampton aim to consolidate their playoff position with a fifth consecutive win, taking on a Derby County side finding form under recent fixtures. As the Saints look unstoppable at the moment, we predict a 2-1 home win. The playoffs hopefuls have been in scintillating form, amassing 2.60 points per game over their last 10 matches, scoring an impressive 2.20 goals per game while conceding just 0.80. Defender Mads Roerslev Rasmussen is the only absentee, allowing Southampton to field a near full-strength squad.
Derby County, meanwhile, have collected 1.80 points per game in recent outings, scoring 1.70 goals while conceding 1.10. Forward Patrick Agyemang is unlikely to feature after a knock, but the Rams have shown resilience, especially at home, winning 80% of their last five matches there. BTTS has occurred in 71% of historical meetings, reflecting a competitive edge.
Given aforementioned statistical data, Home Win, Over 1.5 goals (86% H2H) and Both Teams to Score (71%) markets should be considered.
This Championship match will be played on Saturday, 11 April 2026 at 15:00.
- League
- Championship
- Kick-off
- Sat 11 Apr 2026, 15:00UK time
Southampton vs Derby Betting Tips
| Betting Tip | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Match result | ||
| Correct Score: Southampton 3-1 Derby | 12/1 | |
| Double Chance: 12 | 1/4 | |
| Draw No Bet: Southampton | 1/4 | |
| Half Time/Full Time: Southampton / Southampton | 8/5 | |
| Asian Handicap: Southampton -0.5 | 27/40 | |
| European Handicap: Southampton +1 | 1/7 | |
| Player bets | ||
| Anytime Goalscorer: Cyle Larin | 13/10 | |
| First Goalscorer: Cyle Larin | 9/2 | |
| To be Booked: Sondre Langas | 7/4 | |
| Goals | ||
| Both Teams to Score: Yes | 4/5 | |
| Over / Under 1.5 Goals: Over 1.5 Goals | 1/4 | |
| Over / Under 2.5 Goals: Over 2.5 Goals | 4/5 | |
| Over / Under 3.5 Goals: Over 3.5 Goals | 2/1 | |
| Over / Under 4.5 Goals: Under 4.5 Goals | 1/7 | |
| Southampton Clean Sheet: No | 1/2 | |
| Corners | ||
| Total Corners: 9 - 11 | 8/5 | |
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View OfferSouthampton Team Form and Stats
| Form | Results | Points Per Game |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | dwwwdwwwww | 2.60 |
| Home | dwwww | 2.60 |
| Away | wwdww | 2.60 |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Win % | 80% | 80% | 80% |
| Average Goals Per Game | 2.90 | 2.60 | 3.20 |
| Scored | 2.30 | 2.20 | 2.40 |
| Conceded | 0.60 | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| BTTS | 60% | 40% | 80% |
| Clean Sheets | 40% | 60% | 20% |
| Failed to Score | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Expected Goals | 1.56 | 1.77 | 1.35 |
| Expected Goals Against | 1.49 | 1.31 | 1.66 |
Derby Team Form and Stats
| Form | Results | Points Per Game |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | wllwwlwwlw | 1.80 |
| Home | wwwww | 3.00 |
| Away | lllwl | 0.60 |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 100% | 20% |
| Average Goals Per Game | 2.70 | 2.40 | 3.00 |
| Scored | 1.50 | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| Conceded | 1.20 | 0.40 | 2.00 |
| BTTS | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Clean Sheets | 40% | 60% | 20% |
| Failed to Score | 20% | 0% | 40% |
| Expected Goals | 1.40 | 1.63 | 1.17 |
| Expected Goals Against | 1.40 | 0.95 | 1.85 |
Southampton vs Derby Head to Head Statistics (H2H)
Southampton (29%)
7 Matches
Derby (0%)
Southampton vs Derby Past Results
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