Southampton vs Derby Prediction & Betting Tips | 11/04/2026

Southampton vs Derby Prediction and Betting Tips | 11 April 2026

Bojan Jovanovic • Football expert

9 April 2026 • 10:34 UTC • 1 min read

Southampton vs Derby Prediction and Betting Tips 11 April 2026

All eyes will be on St. Mary’s Stadium as Southampton aim to consolidate their playoff position with a fifth consecutive win, taking on a Derby County side finding form under recent fixtures. As the Saints look unstoppable at the moment, we predict a 2-1 home win. The playoffs hopefuls have been in scintillating form, amassing 2.60 points per game over their last 10 matches, scoring an impressive 2.20 goals per game while conceding just 0.80. Defender Mads Roerslev Rasmussen is the only absentee, allowing Southampton to field a near full-strength squad.

Derby County, meanwhile, have collected 1.80 points per game in recent outings, scoring 1.70 goals while conceding 1.10. Forward Patrick Agyemang is unlikely to feature after a knock, but the Rams have shown resilience, especially at home, winning 80% of their last five matches there. BTTS has occurred in 71% of historical meetings, reflecting a competitive edge.

Given aforementioned statistical data, Home Win, Over 1.5 goals (86% H2H) and Both Teams to Score (71%) markets should be considered.

This Championship match will be played on Saturday 11 April 2026 at 15:00.

What is our Southampton vs Derby prediction?

Our prediction for this match: Southampton 3 - 1 Derby

Southampton vs Derby Betting Tips

Correct Score: 3-1 @ 1200 Odds
Both Teams to Score (BTTS): Yes @ -125 Odds
Over / Under 4.5 Goals: Under 4.5 Goals @ -700 Odds
Over / Under 3.5 Goals: Over 3.5 Goals @ 200 Odds
Over / Under 2.5 Goals: Over 2.5 Goals @ -125 Odds
Over / Under 1.5 Goals: Over 1.5 Goals @ -400 Odds
Anytime Goalscorer: Cyle Larin @ 130 Odds
First Goalscorer: Cyle Larin @ 450 Odds
To be Booked: Sondre Langas @ 175 Odds
Asian Handicap: Southampton -0.5 @ -149 Odds
European Handicap: Southampton +1 @ -700 Odds
Shots on Target (Home): Over 7.5
Shots on Target (Away): Over 2.5
Shots on Target (Total): Over 9.5
Total Corners: 9 - 11 @ 160 Odds
Double Chance: 12 @ -400 Odds
Draw No Bet: Southampton to Win @ -400 Odds
Half Time/Full Time: Southampton to Win/Southampton to Win @ 160 Odds
Clean Sheet: Southampton - No @ -200 Odds

Where Can You Place Bets on Southampton vs Derby?

You can place your bets on Southampton vs Derby at the following bookmakers:

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18+ New UK+ROI Customers only. Certain deposit methods & bet types excl. Min first £/€5 bet within 14 days of account reg at min odds 1/2 to get 4x £/€5 free bets. Free bets available to use on selected sportsbook markets only. Free bets valid for 7 days, stake not returned. Restrictions + T&Cs apply. #Ad / GambleAware.org / 18+

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Southampton Team Form and Stats

Form	Results	Points Per Game
Overall	dwwwdwwwww	2.60
Home	dwwww	2.60
Away	wwdww	2.60

Stats	Overall	Home	Away
Win %	80%	80%	80%
Average Goals Per Game	2.90	2.60	3.20
Scored	2.30	2.20	2.40
Conceded	0.60	0.40	0.80
BTTS	60%	40%	80%
Clean Sheets	40%	60%	20%
Failed to Score	0%	0%	0%
Expected Goals	1.56	1.77	1.35
Expected Goals Against	1.49	1.31	1.66

Derby Team Form and Stats

Form	Results	Points Per Game
Overall	wllwwlwwlw	1.80
Home	wwwww	3.00
Away	lllwl	0.60

Stats	Overall	Home	Away
Win %	60%	100%	20%
Average Goals Per Game	2.70	2.40	3.00
Scored	1.50	2.00	1.00
Conceded	1.20	0.40	2.00
BTTS	40%	40%	40%
Clean Sheets	40%	60%	20%
Failed to Score	20%	0%	40%
Expected Goals	1.40	1.63	1.17
Expected Goals Against	1.40	0.95	1.85