St Mary’s Stadium will be the centre of attention when Southampton and Middlesbrough lock horns in the Championship play-off semi-final second leg, with everything still level after a goalless draw in the first meeting. As Southampton have turned their stadium into a real fortress, our prediction points toward a 2-1 home win. The Saints are in strong form, unbeaten in their last 10 matches with six wins in that run, and averaging an impressive 2.20 goals scored per game. Their home record has been particularly solid, winning 60% of recent fixtures and scoring 2.20 goals per match at St Mary’s. The hosts are without goalkeeper Alex McCarthy and defender Mads Roerslev Rasmussen, both still in recovery.
Middlesbrough also come into the tie with no fresh injury concerns, although Hayden Hackney and Alex Bangura remain doubtful. The Boro have struggled for consistency, winning just two of their last 10 matches and failing to win any of their last four away games. Still, they have been competitive, scoring in most recent fixtures and averaging 1.50 goals per away match. With the tie finely poised and neither side able to gain an advantage in the first leg, this promises a tense and tactical battle.
Given Southampton's excellent home form and attacking potential, we are tempted to bet on Home Win, alongside Southampton Over 1.5 and Over 2.5 goals total (Play-off tension plus attacking styles suggest an open game).
This Championship match will be played on Tuesday 12 May 2026 at 20:00.
What is our Southampton vs Middlesbrough prediction?
Our prediction for this match: Southampton 2 - 1 Middlesbrough
Southampton vs Middlesbrough Betting Tips
- Correct Score: 2-1 @ 900 Odds
- Both Teams to Score (BTTS): Yes @ -163 Odds
- Over / Under 4.5 Goals: Under 4.5 Goals @ -700 Odds
- Over / Under 3.5 Goals: Under 3.5 Goals @ -250 Odds
- Over / Under 2.5 Goals: Over 2.5 Goals @ -125 Odds
- Over / Under 1.5 Goals: Over 1.5 Goals @ -400 Odds
- Anytime Goalscorer: Morgan Whittaker @ 187 Odds
- First Goalscorer: Morgan Whittaker @ 600 Odds
- To be Booked: Luke Ayling @ 175 Odds
- Asian Handicap: Southampton 0 @ -125 Odds
- European Handicap: Southampton +1 @ -250 Odds
- Shots on Target (Home): Over 4.5
- Shots on Target (Away): Over 2.5
- Shots on Target (Total): Over 7.5
- Total Corners: 9 - 11 @ 162 Odds
- Double Chance: 1X @ -250 Odds
- Draw No Bet: Southampton to Win @ -138 Odds
- Half Time/Full Time: Southampton to Win/Southampton to Win @ 300 Odds
- Clean Sheet: Southampton - No @ -350 Odds
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View OfferSouthampton Team Form and Stats
| Form | Results | Points Per Game |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | wwwwwdldwd | 2.10 |
| Home | wwwdd | 2.20 |
| Away | wwlwd | 2.00 |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| Average Goals Per Game | 3.30 | 3.40 | 3.20 |
| Scored | 2.20 | 2.20 | 2.20 |
| Conceded | 1.10 | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| BTTS | 80% | 80% | 80% |
| Clean Sheets | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Failed to Score | 10% | 0% | 20% |
| Expected Goals | 1.46 | 1.57 | 1.35 |
| Expected Goals Against | 1.63 | 1.55 | 1.70 |
Middlesbrough Team Form and Stats
| Form | Results | Points Per Game |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | ddldldwwdd | 1.20 |
| Home | dllwwd | 1.33 |
| Away | dddd | 1.00 |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Win % | 20% | 33% | 0% |
| Average Goals Per Game | 2.50 | 2.17 | 3.00 |
| Scored | 1.40 | 1.33 | 1.50 |
| Conceded | 1.10 | 0.83 | 1.50 |
| BTTS | 60% | 50% | 75% |
| Clean Sheets | 30% | 33% | 25% |
| Failed to Score | 30% | 33% | 25% |
| Expected Goals | 2.12 | 2.26 | 1.90 |
| Expected Goals Against | 1.11 | 0.82 | 1.53 |
Southampton vs Middlesbrough Head to Head Statistics (H2H)
Southampton (33%)
9 Matches
Middlesbrough (33%)
Southampton vs Middlesbrough Past Results
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