Southampton return to St Mary’s after a hard-fought 1-1 draw with Birmingham City and given Millwall's difficulties on the road, our prediction points toward a 3-1 home win. The Saints average 2.60 points per game at home, with an 80% win rate, scoring 2.60 goals per match at St Mary’s and failing to score in 0% of their home outings. Their expected goals of 1.80 at home suggests their attacking numbers are fully sustainable, even though they have kept only 20% clean sheets. There are no fresh injury concerns for the hosts.
The Lions are heading to south in good spirits after a spirited 2-1 win over Bristol City, despite a lengthy injury list. The capital club remain competitive, collecting 1.83 points per game at home, but their away numbers drop to 1.00 points per game, scoring only 0.75 goals per match on the road. Their away xG of 1.15 and xGA of 1.55 highlight a side that often struggles to control matches away from The Den. Historically, this fixture has produced goals, with 64% BTTS in the last 11 meetings.
Given Southampton's excellent home record and strong scoring consistency, Home Win should be considered, alongside Over 2.5 goals and Southampton Over 1.5.
This Championship match will be played on Thursday 1 January 2026 at 15:00.
What is our Southampton vs Millwall prediction?
Our prediction for this match: Southampton 3 - 1 Millwall
Southampton vs Millwall Betting Tips
- Correct Score: 3-1
- Both Teams To Score (BTTS): Yes
- Over / Under 2.5 Goals: Over 2.5 Goals
- Over / Under 1.5 Goals: Over 1.5 Goals
- Goalscorer: Adam Armstrong @ 110 Odds
- To be booked: Jake Cooper @ 160 Odds
- Shots on Target (Home): Over 7.5
- Shots on Target (Away): Over 2.5
- Shots on Target (Total): Over 9.5
- Total Corners: 9 - 11 @ 162 Odds
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View OfferSouthampton Team Form and Stats
| Form | Results | Points Per Game |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | wldld | 1.70 |
| Home | wwwwd | 2.60 |
| Away | wllld | 0.80 |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 80% | 20% |
| Average Goals Per Game | 3.70 | 3.60 | 3.80 |
| Scored | 2.30 | 2.60 | 2.00 |
| Conceded | 1.40 | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| BTTS | 90% | 80% | 100% |
| Clean Sheets | 10% | 20% | 0% |
| Failed to Score | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Expected Goals | 1.76 | 1.80 | 1.73 |
| Expected Goals Against | 1.58 | 1.42 | 1.75 |
Millwall Team Form and Stats
| Form | Results | Points Per Game |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | dlldw | 1.50 |
| Home | wwldw | 1.83 |
| Away | lwdl | 1.00 |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 50% | 25% |
| Average Goals Per Game | 2.40 | 2.50 | 2.25 |
| Scored | 1.10 | 1.33 | 0.75 |
| Conceded | 1.30 | 1.17 | 1.50 |
| BTTS | 60% | 67% | 50% |
| Clean Sheets | 30% | 33% | 25% |
| Failed to Score | 20% | 17% | 25% |
| Expected Goals | 1.47 | 1.68 | 1.15 |
| Expected Goals Against | 1.47 | 1.41 | 1.55 |
Southampton vs Millwall Head to Head Statistics (H2H)
Southampton (45%)
11 Matches
Millwall (27%)
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